Jim's Morning Markets Report--March 26

March 26, 2014 01:59 AM
 

Wednesday, March 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
president James Bullard said the U.S. economy continues to
improve and said he sees U.S. unemployment below 6% by the
end of this year. Amid a lack of major headline economic
data points so far this week, focus of the market place has
been on world central banks and their monetary policies.
European stocks rallied in part Wednesday on ideas the
European Central Bank will soon embark on further monetary
policy stimulus due to concerns about deflation. And recent
downbeat economic data from China has the market place
buzzing that China monetary officials could also loosen
money policy to help stimulate the world’s second-largest
economy. Traders and investors were caught off guard last
week when the U.S. Federal Reserve issued a report that was
deemed as less dovish than expected given that new Fed chair
Janet Yellen is generally believed to be fully in the dovish
camp on monetary policy.

U.S. economic data due out Wednesday includes the weekly MBA
mortgage applications survey, the advance report on durable
goods, the U.S. flash services PMI, and the weekly DOE
energy stocks report.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Ukraine situation has
for the moment de-escalated but is still an unsettling
market factor.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading
today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of
1,876.50 and then at the record high of 1,891.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,858.90 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1,848.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
this week’s high of 3,657.00 and then at 3,675.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,622.25
and then at 3,600.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at last
week’s high of 16,375 and then at 16,400. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 16,300 and then at
16,250. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today. Bulls have
the overall level near-term technical advantage. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 132 31/32 and then
at this week’s high of 133 11/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies
at Tuesday’s low of 132 21/32 and then at this week’s low of
132 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 123.14.5 and then at this week’s high of 123.18.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low of 123.08.5
and then at this week’s low of 123.02.5. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading, on
short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 80.400 and then at the March high of
80.505. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
80.090 and then at this week’s low of 79.900. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S.
trading. In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $100.00 and then at this week’s
high of $100.29. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $99.00 and then at this week’s low of $98.80.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker overnight on some more profit
taking and chart consolidation. The grain market bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The corn
market is seeing underlying support from worries about U.S.
planting delays. Soybeans are boosted by strong worldwide
demand, and the wheat market sees buying interest due to the
poor condition of the U.S. hard red winter crop. The March
31 USDA planting intentions report is coming into view. It’s
one of the most important USDA reports of the year.
 

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