Jim's Morning Markets Report--March 28

March 28, 2014 01:40 AM
 

Friday, March 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the European Union remains worried about
deflationary price pressures as Spain has slipped into
deflation, reports said. Some German and French inflation
figures released Friday also showed a slowing pace of price
increases. This news favors the camp of European Union
monetary policy doves who want to see soon fresh monetary
stimulus from the European Central Bank.

The market place has taken note of the Chinese premiere Li
Keqiang’s comments to the official China newspaper Friday.
Li said China’s economic growth needs to be kept at a
"reasonable pace." Some are taking that to mean China could
soon introduce new monetary policy stimulus measures to
boost its economy.

U.S. economic data due out Friday includes personal income
and outlays, and the University of Michigan consumer
sentiment survey. The market place is already looking ahead
to next Friday’s U.S. jobs report.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Ukraine situation has
for the moment de-escalated but is still an unsettling
market factor.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S.
trading today. The bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage, but trading has turned choppy. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at 1,850.00 and then at 1,860.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at this week’s low of 1,834.00 and then at
1,825.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today but
hovering not far above a six-week low. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at Thursday’s high of
3,585.00 and then at 3,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 3,555.00 and then at this
week’s low of 3,536.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S.
trading. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 16,250 and then at 16,300. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 16,175 and then at
Thursday’s low of 16,120. Shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today on profit
taking after hitting a contract high on Thursday. Bulls
still have the overall level near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 134
8/32 and then at Thursday’s contract high of 134 16/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 133 24/32 and
then at Thursday’s low of 133 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at this week’s high of 123.29.5 and then at
124.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
123.20.0 and then at 123.16.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading, on
more short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. However, a bullish pennant pattern has
formed on the daily bar chart. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
80.400 and then at last week’s high of 80.505. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 80.225 and then at
80.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading
and hit another three-week high overnight. Bulls have upside
momentum. In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $102.00 and then at $102.50. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight
low of $101.18 and then at $100.46. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker overnight on some profit taking
and more chart consolidation. Trading could be quieter today
as next Monday’s USDA planting intentions report is on deck.
The grain market bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The corn market is seeing underlying
support from worries about U.S. planting delays. Soybeans
are boosted by strong worldwide demand, and the wheat market
sees buying interest due to the poor condition of the U.S.
hard red winter crop.
 

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