Jim's Morning Markets Report--March 31

March 31, 2014 01:51 AM
 

Monday, March 31--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Monday is the last trading day of the month and of the
quarter, which makes it an extra important day from a
technical and charts perspective.

In overnight news, the annual inflation rate in the European
Union rose by 0.5%, year-on-year, which is the lowest rate
since 2009. This reading is well below the 2% annual
inflation target set by the European Central Bank. The
latest inflation report is another clue the ECB will
implement more monetary policy stimulus at some point soon.
The ECB holds its monthly monetary policy meeting on
Thursday, including a press conference by ECB president
Mario Draghi. Market expectations are that the ECB will not
change its monetary policy at Thursday’s meeting.

There is a heavy slate of U.S. economic data due out this
week, capped by the U.S. jobs report on Friday. U.S.
economic data due out Monday includes the Chicago ISM
business survey and the Texas manufacturing and business
survey.

Russia’s annexation of the Crimea region of Ukraine remains
a geopolitical tension, but not quite a front-burner markets
issue at this time. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met
with the Russian foreign minister during the weekend, but
little progress was made, reports said.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (The Ukraine situation has
for the moment de-escalated.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S.
trading today. The bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage, but trading has turned choppy. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
1,860.00 and then at last week’s high of 1,868.75. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,850.00 and then at last
week’s low of 1,834.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
Friday’s high of 3,601.00 and then at 3,615.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 3,555.00 and
then at last week’s low of 3,536.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Friday’s high of 16,335 and then at last week’s high of
16,385. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 16,250 and then at Friday’s low of 16,195.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today on more
profit taking after hitting a contract high last Thursday.
Bulls still have the overall level near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133
15/32 and then at 134 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 132 29/32 and then at 132 21/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 123.14.5 and then
at 123.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 123.06.5 and then at the March low of
123.02.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading, after
hitting a four-week high early on. Prices are scoring a
bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart today.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 80.400 and then at today’s high of 80.575.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.150
and then at 80.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading,
on a profit-taking pullback after hitting a three-week high
on Friday. Bulls still have some upside momentum. In May
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $101.73 and then at last
week’s high of $102.24. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $101.00 and then at $100.46. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly weaker overnight on some
profit taking and more chart consolidation before Monday
morning’s USDA planting intentions report. This is one of
the most important USDA reports of the year. Price action
could be volatile in the grain futures markets just after
the 11:00 a.m. CDT report’s release. The grain market bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
corn market is seeing underlying support from worries about
U.S. planting delays. 
 

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