Jim's Morning Markets Report--March 6

March 6, 2014 12:44 AM
 

Thursday, March 6--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Trader and investor risk appetite has come back into the
market place late this week. The situation in Ukraine has
for now moved from a serious geopolitical matter to more of
a regional issue of less significance—from a market place
perspective. This has been bullish for world stock markets
and bearish for safe-haven gold, the U.S. dollar and U.S.
Treasuries.

The monthly monetary policy meeting from the European
Central Bank is Thursday. The ECB is not expected to make
any significant monetary policy moves, given some recent,
generally upbeat economic data coming out of the European
Union. As always, the press conference by ECB president
Mario Draghi will draw close scrutiny from traders and
investors.

The big economic report of the week is the U.S. employment
report on Friday morning. The forecast is for the key non-
farm payrolls figure of the jobs data to come in at up
150,000 in February. Any reading that deviates significantly
from that forecast is likely to move the markets. In recent
weeks, U.S. economic data has mostly missed the pre-report
forecasts and have been on the weak side of those forecasts.

U.S. economic data due for Thursday includes the weekly
jobless claims report, the Challenger job cuts report,
manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and ICSC chain
store sales trends.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Ukraine situation has
de-escalated—for now.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading
today and hit another record high overnight. The bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 1,877.40
and then at 1,885.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at the overnight low of 1,871.40 and then at
1,850.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today
and hit another 13.5-year high overnight. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 3,735.00 and then at 3,750.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 3,712.50
and then at 3,700.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and
hovering near a six-week high. Bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at this week’s high of 16,405 and then
at 16,450. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Wednesday’s low of 16,330 and then at 16,300.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Bulls are
fading amid the increase in investor risk appetite late this
week. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132
13/32 and then at Wednesday’s high of 132 21/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 132 even and then at 131 24/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today as the
bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 124.10.5 and then at Wednesday’s high of
126.14.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of
124.02.0 and then at 124.00.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is near steady early today.
Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at this week’s high of 80.415 and then at 80.500.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.165
and then at Tuesday’s low of 80.080. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are modestly lower early today
and hit a three-week low on more profit taking. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage but are
fading quickly. A steep two-month-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart has been negated. In April Nymex crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight
high of $101.43 and then at $102.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $100.50 and then at $100.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. On tap Thursday is the weekly
USDA export sales report. The Ukraine matter has played out
in the grain markets, unless the situation escalates. The
grain market bulls still have near-term technical momentum
on their side, to suggest prices can work sideways or
sideways to higher. Focus will soon turn to the U.S.
planting season and any potential planting delays due to
cold weather in the central U.S.
 

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