Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 1

May 1, 2013 01:52 AM
 

Wednesday, May 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is ostensibly on hold early Wednesday
morning, ahead of a heavy slate of U.S. economic data due
out Wednesday, including the afternoon release of the FOMC
statement. The Federal Reserve’s policy-making committee is
holding a two-day meeting that began Tuesday morning. Most
do not expect the FOMC to make adjustments in its monetary
policy. However, the wording of the FOMC statement will be
closely scrutinized for clues of upcoming Fed policy
actions, including if and when to start to wind down its
quantitative easing program. Many expect the European
Central Bank to cut interest rates when it holds its monthly
meeting on Thursday. Recent weak EU economic data makes the
case for such action by the ECB. Much of Asia and Europe
celebrated public holidays Wednesday, which made for quieter
dealings overnight. China did report its official
manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected, at 50.6 in
April versus the March reading of 50.9. The weaker-than-
forecast China PMI did help to put some downside price
pressure on the raw commodity markets overnight, including
gold and silver. U.S. economic data due for release
Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications
survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S.
manufacturing PMI, construction spending, the ISM
manufacturing report on business, the weekly DOE energy
stocks report, domestic auto sales and the FOMC statement.--
Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher early today and
hit another all-time high overnight. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 
1,600.00 and then at 1,610.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at Tuesday’s low of 1,581.50 and then at
this week’s low of 1,574.50. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today
and hit another seven-month high overnight. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,890.00 and
then at 2,900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
2,870.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 2,853.25. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
14,800 and then at the April high of 14,818. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 14,750 and
then at 14,700. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 148
18/32 and then at 149 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 148 9/32 and then at 148 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today
after hitting a contract high Tuesday. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 133.16.0 and then at 133.18.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.09.0 and
then at this week’s low of 133.01.5. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading and hit
a fresh nine-week low overnight. The bulls have faded badly
recently. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 81.78 and then at
82.000. Shorter-term support is seen at 81.500 and then at
81.250. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today on some profit taking
and a corrective pullback from recent solid gains. In June
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $93.26 and then at
$94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$92.00 and then at $91.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading. Lower crude oil
prices and weaker China manufacturing data helped to weigh
on the grains. Rains and cold temperatures in the forecast
for the U.S. Corn Belt in the coming days will limit the
downside in corn prices. Corn is also seeing technical
consolidation on the charts. Wheat and soybean bulls still
have some upside near-term technical momentum on their
side. The U.S. hard red winter wheat crop is in bad shape,
while light farmer selling in the U.S. cash market supports
soybean futures prices.

 

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