Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 13

May 13, 2013 01:57 AM
 

Monday, May 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the U.S. dollar has surged on the world
foreign exchange market the past couple trading sessions,
which in turn has impacted several other markets. There was
a story in the Wall Street Journal on Friday that said U.S.
Federal Reserve monetary officials have come up with a
strategy to wind down the Fed’s $85 billion-a-month bond-
buying program, also known as quantitative easing. That
report, which had been rumored to be coming out late last
week, added upside price pressure to the U.S. currency in
the FOREX market. However, there was no specific timetable
for the "QE" exit in the news story, and there have been no
other indications by Fed officials, including Fed Chairman
Bernanke, that the U.S. central bank will begin to tighten
monetary policy any time soon. The greenback hit a four-year
high against the Japanese yen Monday, following a weekend
Group of Seven finance officials’ meeting in London that
failed to criticize Japan and its aggressive easing of its
monetary policy. China on Monday reported its industrial
production did improve during April, but still came in
slightly below trade expectations. Industrial production in
China came in at up 9.3%, on an annualized basis, in April.
The market expected up 9.5%. Reports from India said demand
for physical gold was unimpressive Monday as a major
festival approaches. Retailers and analysts said consumer
demand for gold is rising about 10% to 15%, when sales
usually rise 40% to 50% during the Akshaya Trithiya festival
season. The weak Indian rupee currency and a rebound in gold
prices from the April low were blamed for the lackluster
demand for gold in India. U.S. economic data due for release
Monday includes advance retail sales, manufacturing and
trade inventories, and the New York Federal Reserve small
business credit survey.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today and hovering
near last week’s all-time high. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last
week’s record high of 1,632.30 and then at 1,640.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 1,615.00 and
then at last week’s low of 1,607.40. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today
and hovering near a 12-year high. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the overnight high
of 2,973.00 and then at last week’s new for-the-move high of
2,978.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,950.00 and
then at last week’s low of 2,936.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today and hovering near
the record high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at Friday’s high of 15,080 and then at
last week’s high of 15,105. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at Friday’s low of 15,000 and then
at 14,980. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher early today
and hit a fresh six-week low overnight. Bulls are still in
near-term technical trouble. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 145
16/32 and then at 146 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
144 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 144 6/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today
after hitting a fresh six-week low early on. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 132.08.0 and then at 132.16.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 132.00.0 and then at the
overnight low of 131.23.5. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading.
Prices Friday hit a five-week high. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum on
their side. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 83.40 and then
at Friday’s high of 83.52. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 83.165 and then at 83.00. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today, pressured by the
stronger U.S. dollar index. Bulls still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. In June Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $96.00
and then at $96.77. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $95.00 and then at $94.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading, on some
chart consolidation. Last Friday’s monthly USDA supply and
demand report was deemed mostly bearish. Weather in the
U.S. Corn Belt is once again in focus for grain traders.
There was some scattered frost during the weekend, but
temperatures are expected to warm dramatically on Tuesday
but then cool down later in the week. A good portion of the
U.S. corn crop will get planted in the coming days. Soybean
futures bulls have gained some upside momentum amid very
strong cash basis levels in the U.S. Wheat futures trading
remains very choppy. Wheat will be a follower of the corn
market in the near term.
 

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close