Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 14

May 14, 2013 01:47 AM
 

Tuesday, May 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It was an uneventful overnight trade in Asia and Europe
Tuesday. Fresh economic data from Europe was mixed Tuesday.
The German ZEW index for May came in at 36.4 versus 36.3 in
April, but below expectations of 39.5. However, European
Union industrial production rose 1.0% in March, the largest
monthly increase in 1.5 years. Good demand at a Spanish
government bond auction is a clue that the European
sovereign debt crisis is presently residing on the back
burner of the market place stove. Australia’s government
budget was released Tuesday and it hinted further easing of
that country’s monetary policy is very possible. That news
dropped the Aussie dollar to an 11-month low versus the
greenback. U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday
includes the NFIB small business index, weekly Goldman Sachs
and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and import and
export price indexes.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today and hovering
near the all-time high. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s
record high of 1,632.80 and then at 1,640.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,615.00 and then at last
week’s low of 1,607.40. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today but not
far below Monday’s 12-year high. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Monday’s
high of 2,987.50 and then at 3,000.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at Monday’s low of 2,960.50 and then at
2,950.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today and hovering near
the record high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at Monday’s high of 15,065 and then at
last week’s record high of 15,105. Sell stops likely reside
just below technical support at 15,000 and then at 14,980.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on short
covering after hitting a six-week low Monday. Bulls are
still in near-term technical trouble. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at 145 16/32 and then at 146 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 144 15/32 and then at
Monday’s low of 144 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today
on short covering after hitting a six-week low on Monday.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high
of 132.05.5 and then at 132.10.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 131.27.0 and then at Monday’s
low of 131.23.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading and
hovering near this year’s high. Bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage and have momentum on their side.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at last week’s high of 83.520 and then at the
April high of 83.660. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 83.045 and then at 82.765. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker again early today, pressured by
the recently stronger U.S. dollar index and worries about
worldwide demand for oil. In June Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at $95.00 and then at
the overnight high of $95.66. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $94.00 and then at last week’s low of
$93.37. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading, on some
chart consolidation. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is the
main focus for grain traders. Temperatures are expected to
rise dramatically Tuesday but then cool down later in the
week, with good rainfall chances. A good portion of the
U.S. corn crop has been and will get planted in the coming
days. However, the progress is still behind normal.Soybean
futures bulls have gained some upside momentum amid very
strong cash basis levels in the U.S. Wheat futures trading
remains very choppy. Wheat will be a follower of the corn
market in the near term. Recent big swings in the central
U.S. weather patterns are a hint that the growing season in
the U.S. will produce high volatility in the grain futures
markets in the coming weeks and few months.
 

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