Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 15

May 15, 2013 02:10 AM
 

Wednesday, May 15--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the Euro currency fell and the U.S.
dollar index rose to a nine-month high on news of a weaker-
than-expected European Union gross domestic product figure.
For the sixth quarter in a row, EU GDP came in at negative
growth. First-quarter EU GDP came in at minus 0.2%, compared
with the fourth-quarter of last year. The GDP data from the
EU suggests the European Central Bank will keep its pedal to
the metal on its aggressive easing of its monetary policy.
Meantime, the Bank of England Wednesday said the U.K.
economy is in recovery, but it will be a very slow process
that could force the BOE to implement more monetary stimulus
measures. In Asia, the Japan Nikkei stock index pushed to a
five-year high as the yen continues its descent versus the
other major world currencies. U.S. economic data due for
release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage
applications survey, the producer price index, the Empire
State manufacturing survey, Treasury international capital
data, industrial production and capacity utilization, the
weekly DOE energy stocks report, and the NAHB housing market
index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today and
hovering near Tuesday’s all-time high. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
1,650.00 and then at 1,660.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,632.00 and then at this week’s low of
1,621.60. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly weaker early today
but not far below Tuesday’s 12-year high. Bulls still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Tuesay’s
high of 3,005.00 and then at 3,025.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at 2,987.50 and then at Tuesday’s low of
2,971.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today and hovering
near Tuesday’s record high. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of
15,180 and then at 15,200. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 15,100 and then at this week’s
low of 15,020. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today and hovering
near this week’s six-week low. Bears are in near-term
technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 144 even and
then at the overnight high of 144 6/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 143 16/32 and then at
143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today and hit a
six-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
Tuesday’s high of 131.24.5 and then at 132.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.16.0 and
then at 131.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early U.S.
trading and hit a fresh 9.5-month high overnight. Bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
84.250 and then at 84.500. Shorter-term support is seen at
84.00 and then at the overnight low of 83.680. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower again early today and bulls are
fading again. Oil is pressured by the stronger U.S. dollar
index and worries about worldwide demand for oil. In June
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $94.00 and then at the overnight high of
$94.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$92.50 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were weaker in overnight trading, on bearish
"outside markets" that include a sharply higher U.S. dollar
index and lower crude oil prices. In fact, the entire raw
commodity sector is under selling pressure Wednesday due to
the surging greenback. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is
still the main focus for grain traders. Drier and warmer
weather are in the forecast in the coming days, which will
allow a big chunk of the corn crop to get planted. However,
the progress is still behind normal. Soybean bulls still
have some upside technical momentum on their side, while
wheat trading has been choppy and sideways, but with the
bears holding the advantage.
 

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