Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 17

May 17, 2013 02:13 AM
 

Friday, May 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *


The U.S. dollar index is stronger again Friday morning and
is hovering near this week’s 9.5-month high. San Francisco
Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams late Thursday
said he is open to winding down the Fed’s bond-buying
program, also called quantitative easing. Williams’ remarks
echoed similar comments Thursday from Federal Reserve banks
of Philadelphia and Dallas presidents. Growing ideas the
U.S. Fed will begin to gradually tighten its monetary policy
sooner rather than later have given the greenback a major
boost recently. The new buzz word for the anticipated Fed
monetary action is "tapering"—meaning gradually scaling back
the monthly bond purchases by the Fed. The dollar has also
been supported by U.S. economic data that, while not robust,
has been generally better than economic data coming from
most other major industrialized nations.  To put it another
way, the U.S. currency is presently the least ugly pig in
the pen. In overnight news, European Union construction
output declined 1.7% in March from February, and was down
7.9% on an annual basis. That is the fifth straight month of
a decline in the reading. The weak data put downside price
pressure on the Euro currency Friday. The Japanese stock
market hit another five-year high Friday, on more yen
weakness. Meantime, the Australian dollar hit an 11-month
low. Other commodity-linked currencies were weaker, too,
including the New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar. U.S.
economic data due for release Friday includes the University
of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and leading economic
indicators.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering
near this week’s all-time high. Not much new. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
this week’s high of 1,659.30 and then at 1,675.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,644.20 and then at
1,632.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today and
hovering near Thursday’s 12-year high. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at Thursday’s high of
3,019.00 and then at 3,025.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at Thursday’s low of 2,996.00 and then at Wednesday’s
low of 2,982.50. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near
this week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at Thursday’s record high of 15,275 and
then at 15,300. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at 15,200 and then at Wednesday’s low of
15,160. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today and seeing
a corrective pullback from Thursday’s strong gains. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 145 18/32 and
then at 146 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 145 even and
then at 144 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly weaker early today
on a corrective pullback from Thursday’s gains. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 132.17.0 and then at 132.24.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 132.09.0 and then at 132.00.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early U.S.
trading and hovering near Wednesday’s 9.5-month high. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
Wednesday’s high of 84.220 and then at 84.500. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 83.865 and then at
Thursday’s low of 83.570. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls and
bears are on an overall level near-term technical playing
field. In June Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at this week’s high of $95.81 and then
at $96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at the overnight low of $94.79 and then at $94.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading. Buying
interest in the grain is being limited Friday morning by
the stronger U.S. dollar index. Short covering is featured
in corn early Friday, while soybeans are seeing some fresh
speculative buying as the technical posture in that market
is improving. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is a main focus
for grain traders. Drier and warmer weather has allowed a
big chunk of the corn crop to get planted. In fact, this
week could show record corn-planting progress when next
week’s USDA crop progress reports are released. Wheat
trading remains choppy and sideways, but with the bears
holding the solid advantage.
 

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