Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 21

May 21, 2013 01:55 AM
 

Tuesday, May 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke’s speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy
before the Congress on Wednesday. The Fed’s FOMC minutes are
also due out Wednesday afternoon. Traders and investors will
closely scrutinize Bernanke’s remarks and the FOMC minutes
for any clues on the U.S. central bank’s potential course of
monetary policy in the coming weeks and months. There is a
growing belief in the market place that the Fed is aiming to
wind down its quantitative easing program (QE3) sooner
rather than later. The term presently bandied about is
"tapering" of the Fed’s massive monthly bond-buying program.
However, there is no clear consensus among market and Fed
watchers regarding what the Fed will do with its monetary
policy. On Thursday, there will be key manufacturing data
out of China released, which will also garner close market
attention. U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is
again light and includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and
Johnson Redbook retail sales reports.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today and
hovering near Monday’s all-time high. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at Monday’s record high of 1,670.80 and then at 1,675.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 1,650.00 and
then at 1,632.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today
and hovering just below Monday’s 12-year high. Bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
Monday’s high of 3,032.00 and then at 3,050.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 3,000.00 and then at 2,982.50.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today and hovering
near Monday’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at Monday’s record high of 15,365
and then at 15,400. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at Monday’s low of 15,300 and then at
15,260. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 144
even and then at Monday’s high of 144 17/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at last week’s low of 143 16/32 and
then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today
on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
132.00.0 and then at 132.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 131.22.5 and then at last week’s low
of 131.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading and
hovering near last week’s 9.5-month high. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 84.275 and then at last week’s high of
84.515. Shorter-term support is seen at 84.000 and then at
the overnight low of 83.865. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bulls still have
the slight near-term technical advantage but trading remains
choppy. In July Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $97.00 and then at the May high of
$97.38. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$96.00 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly lower in overnight trading.
Monday’s weekly USDA crop progress report showed big
progress made planting the U.S. corn crop last week, and
that’s bearish for corn. Buying interest in the grains has
also been limited recently by the stronger U.S. dollar
index. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is still a main focus
for grain traders. Showers and thunderstorms recently, and
more in the forecast, are delaying seeding of corn and
soybeans. However, traders reckon the bearish effect of
soil moisture levels being recharged after last year’s
major drought outweigh the bullish planting delays. Soybean
bulls have recently gained good upside near-term technical
momentum, mainly due to a tight supply of U.S. soybeans at
present. Wheat trading remains choppy and sideways, but
with the bears holding the solid advantage.
 

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