Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 23

May 23, 2013 02:06 AM
 

Thursday, May 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

There are keener "risk-off" trader attitudes in the market
place Thursday, which has the gold market seeing good safe-
haven demand—something the yellow metal has not experienced
in quite some time. The Japanese stock market tumbled
overnight and the Japanese yen rallied in the wake of the
U.S. stock market losses Wednesday, and on some fresh, weak
economic data coming out of China.  Japan’s Nikkei stock
index fell by 7% Thursday. European stock markets were also
sharply lower, which in turn led to follow-through selling
in the U.S. stock indexes in pre-market electronic trading
Thursday morning. China manufacturing data issued Thursday
came in weaker than expected. The preliminary China HSBC
manufacturing PMI dropped to a seven-month low of 49.6 in
May. A number below 50.0 indicates contraction. The world
market place is still digesting Wednesday’s remarks from
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in which he said
it’s possible the Fed could start to back off on its
quantitative easing of monetary policy as soon as this
summer. Bernanke’s comments and the Fed’s FOMC minutes
Wednesday were far from conclusive on the timing of the Fed
ending QE. However, the market place read the developments
as leaning to the hawkish side and the door being opened
just a little wider for the Fed winding down QE sooner
rather than later. In the European Union, there was more
weak economic data released Thursday. The Markit purchasing
managers’ survey for the Euro zone came in at 47.7 in May
from 46.9 in April—below the 50.0 threshold, which suggests
contraction. There was another dour assessment of the
European Union economy from an EU official Thursday. Ewald
Nowatny, a member of the European Central Bank’s governing
council, said there is no improvement in sight for the EU
economy. The EU economy has been in contraction for the past
year and a half. The U.S. dollar index is sharply lower
Thursday morning, on a corrective technical pullback from
recent gains that pushed the greenback to a 9.5-month high
this week. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday
includes the weekly jobless claims report, the flash
manufacturing PMI, the monthly house price index, new
residential sales, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing
survey.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are lower early today and seeing
follow-through selling from Wednesday’s solid losses. A
bearish "key reversal" down on the daily bar chart has
occurred in this index, which is one early clue that a
market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-
, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,658.60 and then at 1,673.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,632.70
and then at 1,625.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today and
seeing follow-through selling from Wednesday’s pressure. A
bearish "key reversal" down on the daily bar chart has
occurred in this index, which is one early clue that a
market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 3,000.00 and then at the overnight
high of 3,008.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,961.25 and then at 2,950.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.0.

Dow futures: Prices are lower early today and seeing follow-
through selling from Wednesday’s losses. A bearish "key
reversal" down on the daily bar chart has occurred in this
index, which is one early clue that a market top is in
place. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 15,250 and then at 15,300. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 15,150 and then at
15,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on short
covering and some safe-haven demand. Prices hit a fresh
nine-week low overnight. Bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 144 3/32 and then at 144 16/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 143 even and then at the overnight
low of 142 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering and some safe-haven demand. Prices hit a fresh
nine-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.23.5 and then
at 132.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.08.0 and
then at 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading, on a
technical correction and profit-taking pullback after
hitting a fresh 9.5-month high overnight. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 84.220 and
then at the overnight high of 84.595. Shorter-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 83.845 and then at this
week’s low of 83.520. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today. Bulls are fading. In
July Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $94.00 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at the overnight low of $92.67
and then at last week’s low of $92.40. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were again narrowly mixed in overnight trading.
Corn bulls gained upside technical momentum with
Wednesday’s solid gains. Soybean bulls are making a solid
move higher and have good upside technical momentum.
Soybeans see a tight U.S. cash market, too. What remains
the weak sister of the grains complex. Weather in the U.S.
Corn Belt is still a main focus for grain traders. Showers
and thunderstorms recently, and more in the forecast, are
still delaying seeding of corn and soybeans. Traders will
closely examine Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales
report.
 

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close