Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 24

May 24, 2013 01:45 AM
 

Friday, May 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Trading was quieter in overnight action around the world.
The three-day U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend could make
for a calmer U.S. session, too. In overnight news, the Euro
currency was supported on some positive economic news out of
Germany. The German economy grew by 0.1% in the first
quarter, versus the fourth quarter of last year. German
business confidence rose in May, following two months of
declines. Meantime, German consumer confidence rose for the
fifth straight month and hit a multi-year high. European
stocks were mostly weaker Friday. Asian stocks saw volatile
trading early on but ended mixed, with the Japanese Nikkei
index finishing the day not far from unchanged. U.S.
economic data due for release Friday includes the advance
report on durable goods orders.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are again lower early today as the
bulls have faded late this week. A bearish "key reversal"
down on the daily bar chart has occurred in this index this
week, which is an early clue that a market top is in place.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
the overnight high of 1,655.30 and then at 1,673.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at Thursday’s
low of 1,632.70 and then at 1,625.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today as the
bulls are fading. A bearish "key reversal" down on the daily
bar chart occurred in this index this week, which is an
early clue that a market top is in place. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at 3,000.00 and then at
Thursday’s high of 3,008.50. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at Thursday’s low of 2,961.25 and then at 2,950.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

Dow futures: Prices are lower early today as the bulls are
fading. A bearish "key reversal" down on the daily bar chart
occurred in this index, which is an early clue that a market
top is in place. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 15,289 and then at Thursday’s high
of 15,325. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 15,200 and then at Thursday’s low of 15,177.
Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today,
as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on tepid
short covering. Prices hit a nine-week low Thursday. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices
are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 143
14/32 and then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 142 23/32 and then at this week’s low
of 142 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on tepid
short covering. Prices hit a nine-week low on Thursday.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 131.16.0 and then at Thursday’s high of 131.23.5.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
131.05.0 and then at 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is lower again in early U.S. trading,
as the bulls are fading late this week. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at 84.000 and then
at 84.220. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 83.500 and then at 83.325. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower again early today. Bulls are
fading. In July Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $94.00 and then at the overnight
high of $94.39. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $93.00 and then at Thursday’s low of $92.21.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were modestly lower in overnight trading, on a
corrective pullback from Thursday’s gains. Grain bulls had
a good day on Thursday. Corn bulls have gained upside
technical momentum late this week. Soybean bulls are on a
run as prices are hovering near this week’s eight-month
high. Soybeans see a tight U.S. cash market and good U.S.
export demand. Wheat remains the weak sister of the grains
complex, but will follow corn if that market continues to
rally.
 

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