Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 3

May 3, 2013 01:54 AM
 

 

Friday, May 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place awaits Friday morning’s U.S. jobs report
for April. The key non-farm payrolls figure is seen coming
in at up 148,000, with the unemployment rate seen unchanged
at 7.6%. Given recent weaker U.S. economic data, many market
watchers reckoned the jobs report would be on the weak side.
Government bond yields in Europe declined Friday, with some
yields at record lows, following European Central Bank
President Draghi’s comment Thursday that negative ECB
deposit rates cannot be ruled out. European Union producer
prices fell by 0.2% in March, it was reported Friday, and
fell to a three-year low annual rate of up 0.7%. Those
numbers would allow the ECB to further ease monetary policy
at some point. Traders are still digesting this week’s
meetings of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC and the the European
Central Bank. The ECB on Thursday cut its key interest rate
by 0.25%, to 0.5%, which was expected by many market
watchers. ECB’s Draghi at this monthly press conference
following the ECB meeting said his central bank could even
charge a negative interest rate if economic conditions in
the EU warrant. The FOMC statement on Wednesday saw the Fed
made no mention of a timeframe for winding down its
quantitative easing program and said it could adjust its
bond-buying up or down based on U.S. economic conditions.
The market place is reading these two meetings’ results as
friendly for the raw commodity and stock market sector. The
Fed and ECB appear intent on leaving their monetary policies
very "easy" for at least the next several months, if not
longer. Raw commodities late this week are in a general
rally mode following the FOMC and ECB meetings. U.S.
economic data due for release Friday includes the jobs
report, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the
ISM non-manufacturing report on business.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at this week’s high of 1,595.40 and then
at 1,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
this week’s low of 1,574.50 and then at 1,560.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today.
Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at Thursday’s high of 2,910.50 and then at 2,925.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 2,887.00 and then at
Thursday’s low of 2,867.25. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
14,800 and then at the April high of 14,818. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 14,700 and
then at Thursday’s low of 14,670. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 149
13/32 and then at the contract high of 149 23/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 148 31/32 and
then at this week’s low of 148 9/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today.
Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract
high of 133.25.0 and then at 134.00.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 133.16.0 and then at 133.08.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 82.310 and then at Thursday’s high of
82.415. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
81.990 and then at 81.780. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Trading has been
very choppy this week, but bulls have regained some upside
momentum. In June Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at this week’s high of $94.69 and then
at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at $94.00 and then at $93.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading. The U.S. jobs
report is likely to be an outside force impacting the
grains Friday. Rains and cold temperatures, including snow,
in the U.S. Corn Belt are bullish for corn, which in turn
is the leader of the grains complex, at present. Wheat
bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum
on their side. This week’s hard red winter wheat tour
showed a U.S. Plains wheat crop in generally bad shape.
Meantime, light farmer selling in the U.S. cash market
supports soybean futures prices.
 

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