Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 31

May 31, 2013 02:01 AM
 

Friday, May 31--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

On this last day of the month, the Euro currency was under
pressure overnight following another downbeat economic
report coming out of the European Union. Euro zone
unemployment rose to a record high of 12.2% in April.
Leading EU economy Germany saw its retail sales fall for a
third month in a row during April. Inflationary pressures in
the Euro zone remain subdued, as the April EU consumer price
index was up 1.4%, on an annualized basis. Asian stock
markets were mixed overnight, with Japan’s Nikkei index
posting modest gains. The Nikkei index did close out the
month of May with a net decline for the first time in over a
year. The market place is awaiting key manufacturing data
coming out of China on Saturday. U.S. economic data due for
release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the ISM
Chicago business survey, and the University of Michigan
consumer sentiment survey.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today on profit
taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,655.80 and
then at this week’s high of 1,672.30. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,640.00
and then at last week’s low of 1,632.70. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today on profit
taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the overnight high of 3,014.25 and then at Thursday’s high
of 3,025.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,985.75 and then at this week’s low of
2,978.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are lower early today on profit taking.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
15,300 and then at 15,350. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 15,200 and then at 15,150.
Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today,
as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on
short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 141 14/32 and then
at 142 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 141 even and
then at the overnight low of 140 18/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on
short covering in a bear market. Bears stilll have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 129.30.5 and then
at 130.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 129.17.0 and then at 129.08.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading, on a
corrective bounce from recent selling presssure. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have
faded as trading is choppy. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
83.525 and then at 83.500. Shorter-term support is seen at
this week’s low of 83.010 and then at 82.750. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today as the bulls are
fading. In July Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $93.00 and then at the overnight
high of $93.85. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at last week’s low of $92.21 and then at this week’s
low of $91.65. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading. Very wet U.S.
Corn Belt weather has caused planting delays in both corn
and soybeans, which is bullish for both markets. An Iowa
farmer told me if no more rain falls in the near-term it
would still be at least a week before he could get back to
his fields to resume planting. Unfortunately, more rains
are in the Corn Belt forecast.  Wheat futures bears remain
in control. Traders will closely examine Friday morning’s
weekly USDA export sales report, delayed by one day due to
the holiday on Monday.
 

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