Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 7

May 7, 2013 02:24 AM
 

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, Australia’s central bank cuts its
interest rate to a record low of 2.75% in an effort to keep
its economy afloat and to weaken the Australian dollar. Yet
another major central bank is working to debase its
currency. Such is a bullish underlying factor for hard
assets and the precious metals markets--and especially gold,
which many investors view as a currency in itself. In Asian
trading the Japanese stock market hit a five-year high on
the first trading day after the Golden Week holiday break.
There will be some key economic data from China released on
Wednesday and Thursday. A Dow Jones Newswires report Tuesday
highlighted that falling factory inventories in China are a
strong signal the world’s second-largest economy is
sputtering a bit. U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday
includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail
sales reports, the global services PMI, and the consumer
credit report.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices slightly higher early today and
poked to another new all-time high overnight. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
1,625.00 and then at 1,635.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,609.40 and then
at 1,600.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today and hit
another 12-year high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,965.00 and
then at 2,975.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,943.25 and then at 2,925.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near
the record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at last week’s high of 14,955 and then
at 15,000. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Monday’s low of 14,880 and then at 14,850.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today and
hit a fresh three-week low overnight. Bulls are in near-term
technical trouble. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 146 31/32 and then at Monday’s high of 147 13/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at 146 even and then at 145
26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today
and hit a fresh three-week low overnight. Bulls are fading.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 132.28.5 and then at 133.00.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 132.19.5 and then at 132.16.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 82.400 and then at 82.610. Shorter-
term support is seen at Monday’s low of 82.040 and then at
last Friday’s low of 81.835. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bulls still have
some upside momentum. In June Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at last week’s high of
$96.04 and then at $97.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $95.26 and then at
$95.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, on a corrective
technical bounce following strong losses suffered on
Monday. The U.S. Corn Belt is seeing drier and warmer
weather and it appears a big chunk of the Corn Belt corn
crop will get planted in the coming days. That’s bearish
for corn, and corn is presently the leader in the grains
complex. Soybeans and wheat will follow the corn futures
market for the near term. Traders are awaiting Friday’s
monthly USDA supply and demand report. However, the weather
in the central U.S. is still the major fundamental factor
in the grain futures markets, at present.
 

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