Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 8

May 8, 2013 01:35 AM
 

Wednesday, May 8--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the Euro currency was given a boost by
better-than-expected German industrial production data in
April, at up 1.2% when a 0.2% decline was expected. China
reported a trade surplus of $18.2 billion in April compared
to expectations of a $15.6 billion surplus. Both imports and
exports exceeded market expectations. Asian stock markets
were supported on the China news. The upbeat German and
China data also gave a modest boost to the raw commodity
sector, including the precious metals. U.S. economic data
due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage
applications survey and the weekly DOE energy stocks
report.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices slightly higher early today and
poked to another new all-time high overnight. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
1,625.00 and then at 1,635.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at Tuesday’s low of 1,609.40 and then at
1,600.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today and
hovering near this week’s 12-year high. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at Tuesday’s high of
2,956.75 and then at 2,965.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at Tuesday’s low of 2,937.25 and then at 2,925.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near
the record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 15,000 and then at 15,050. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at
Tuesday’s low of 14,915 and then at this week’s low of
14,880. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today and
hit a fresh four-week low overnight. Bulls are in near-term
technical trouble. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 146 13/32 and then at Tuesday’s high of 146 31/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at 146 even and then at 145
26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today.
Bulls have faded. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 132.23.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of
132.28.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of
132.17.0 and then at 132.10.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 82.400 and then at 82.610. Shorter-
term support is seen at this week’s low of 82.040 and then
at 81.835. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. In June Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$96.00 and then at $96.50. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $95.00 and then at $94.50. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were modestly higher in overnight trading, on short
covering following recent losses. The U.S. Corn Belt is
seeing drier and warmer weather this week and it appears a
sizeable portion of the Corn Belt corn crop will get
planted in the coming days. While that’s bearish for corn
at present, there is some wetter and cooler weather in the
forecast in the next 48 hours. The corn crop is still well
behind normal for planting progress. Corn is presently the
leader in the grains complex. Soybeans and wheat will
follow the corn futures market for the near term. Traders
are awaiting Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand
report. However, the weather in the central U.S. is still
the major fundamental factor in the grain futures markets,
at present.
 

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