Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 9

May 9, 2013 01:46 AM
 

Thursday, May 9--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, China reported its producer price index
dropped more than expected in April, which suggests slowing
production in China. Meantime, China also reported its
consumer price inflation rate rose more than expected—up
2.4% versus expectations of a 2.2% rise, on an annual basis-
-which suggests China monetary officials could tighten
monetary policy to ward off inflationary price pressures.
Thursday’s data from the world’s largest raw commodity
consumer is bearish for that sector. In other news, the Bank
of Korea unexpectedly cut its interest rates overnight,
while the Bank of England left its monetary policy
unchanged. The European Central Bank reported Thursday the
Euro zone economy remains weak and could get weaker. U.S.
economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly
jobless claims report and ICSC chain store sale trends.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices slightly lower early today and poked
to another new all-time high overnight. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
overnight high of 1,631.20 and then at 1,640.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at Wednesday’s low of
1,617.20 and then at 1,609.40. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today
and hit another fresh 12-year high overnight. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the overnight high of 2,967.50 and then at 2,975.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of
2,936.50 and then at 2,925.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today and
hovering near the record high. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at Wednesday’s record high of
15,062 and then at 15,100. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 15,000 and then at Wednesday’s
low of 14,980. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering and bargain hunting. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 147 4/32 and then at this week’s high of
147 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
146 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 146 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 133.00.0 and
then at 133.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 132.23.0 and then at this week’s low of
132.17.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S.
trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 82.250 and then at this week’s high of 82.475.
Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 81.780
and then at 81.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bulls still have
some upside momentum. In June Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high
of $96.77 and then at this week’s high of $97.17. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $95.50 and then
at $95.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading, on short
covering and position evening ahead of Friday’s monthly
USDA supply and demand report. That report is expected to
be bearish for corn and soybeans. The U.S. Corn Belt saw
some scattered showers overnight, but is generally seeing
drier and warmer weather this week, with more dry and warm
weather in the forecast for next week. That’s bearish for
corn, as a big chunk of the U.S. corn crop will get planted
in the coming days if the weather forecasts are correct.
Corn is the price leader in the grain futures complex at
present.
 

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