Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 12

November 12, 2013 12:40 AM
 

Tuesday, November 12--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, Chinese leaders at their annual Communist
party meeting pledged to enact fiscal and land reforms, ease
controls on investment and become more market-oriented,
reports overnight said.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) reported Tuesday that the economies of the European
Union, China and the U.K. will see better economic growth in
the coming year. However, India, Brazil and Russia are
likely to see weaker economic growth in the coming year. The
OECD said little change in the rate of economic growth is
expected in the U.S. and Japan.

The U.S. dollar is firmer Tuesday, seeing support the past
week on ideas the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin to back
off on its easing of monetary policy in the not-too-distant
future. Some in the market place now expect the Fed to begin
"tapering" its monthly bond-buying program (quantitative
easing) as early as December. The greenback is also
supported by last week’s surprise move by the European
Central Bank to lower its main interest rate to a record-low
0.25%.

There continue to be reports of weak demand for physical
gold coming from Asian countries, which remains an
underlying bearish fundamental factor for the gold market.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the
weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales
reports, the NFIB small business index, the Chicago Fed
national activity index, and the employment trends index.

Monday’s Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (No major
developments overnight and no major economic reports out
Tuesday.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off).

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S.
trading, on profit taking. The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at last week’s record high of
1,774.20 and then at 1,785.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,750.00 and then at last week’s low of
1,736.30. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today,
on profit taking. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 3,358.00 and then at
3,387.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 3,344.25 and then at 3,325.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at last
week’s record high of 15,745 and then at 15,800. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at Monday’s low
of 15,688 and then at 15,650. Shorter-term moving averages
are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today and hit
another fresh two-month low overnight. Bears have downside
technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 131 16/32 and then at Monday’s high of 131
24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
131 4/32 and then at 131 even. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today and
hit a fresh four-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
the overnight high of 126.03.0 and then at Monday’s high of
126.08.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
125.23.0 and then at 125.16.5. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is higher early today and
hovering near the recent two-month high. Bulls have upside
momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at last week’s high of 81.580 and then at 81.750.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.175
and then at 81.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are weaker early today and
hovering not far above last week’s four-month low. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In
December Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $95.00 and then at last week’s high of
$95.40. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $94.31 and then at $94.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer. Corn and soybean bulls are gaining
upside technical momentum. The upside price action in corn
and soybeans hints that seasonal harvest lows are in place.
Wheat is still technically bearish but will be a follower
for at least the near term. With the U.S. corn and soybean
harvest winding down, focus of grain market traders now
turns from U.S. production to overall worldwide demand for
grains, and on the upcoming South American planting and
growing season.
 

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