Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 13

November 13, 2013 12:55 AM
 

Wednesday, November 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

There were no major economic or geopolitical developments in
overnight trading, leaving markets to languish. Asian shares
traded mostly lower Wednesday with European stock markets
following suit, partly on disappointment the Chinese
Communist party meeting concluded and its communique did not
lay out more specifics on economic reforms.

Amid the current lack fundamental news to drive the markets,
attention remains on notions the U.S. Federal Reserve will
begin to back off on its easing of monetary policy in the
not-too-distant future. Some market watchers expect the Fed
to begin "tapering" its monthly bond-buying program
(quantitative easing) as early as December. Others are
looking for the Fed to make its move in the first quarter of
next year. Generally, the past few weeks have seen the
market place move up its Fed-tapering expectations by at
least several months. This has boosted the U.S. dollar
against its rivals, which in turn has been a bearish
underlying factor for the raw commodity sector.

The Bank of England said Wednesday it could start to raise
its interest rates in the third quarter of 2015, which is
nine months sooner than it had forecast in its previous
declarations. The European Central Bank at present appears
to be the outlier as it recently lowered its key interest
rate to a record low 0.25%. Weak economic data from the EU
reported Wednesday, in the form of industrial production,
continues a spotty overall economic performance from the
bloc.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light and
includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the
monthly Treasury budget statement.

Wednesday’s Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (No major
developments overnight and no major economic reports out
Wednesday.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off).

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on
more profit taking. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,765.80 and then at last week’s record high of
1,774.20. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at
1,750.00 and then at last week’s low of 1,736.30. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today, on more
profit taking. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at this week’s high of 3,366.75 and then at
3,387.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s
low of 3,343.75 and then at 3,325.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today on profit taking.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
15,710 and then at the record high of 15,745. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 15,600 and
then at 15,550. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today, on
short covering after prices hit a two-month low Tuesday.
Bears still have some downside technical momentum. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 131 29/32 and then
at 132 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 131 13/32 and then at this week’s low of 131 4/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on
short covering after hitting a four-week low Tuesday.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at this week’s high of 126.08.5 and
then at 126.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 125.27.5 and then at this week’s low of
125.23.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early
today. Bulls still have some upside momentum. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
last week’s high of 81.580 and then at 81.750. Shorter-term
support is seen at this week’s low of 81.080 and then at
80.790. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher early
today, on short covering in a bear market. Prices Tuesday
hit a 4.5-month low. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in an 11-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. In December Nymex crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at $94.00 and then
at $94.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at Tuesday’s low of $92.86 and then at $92.50. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. Corn and soybean bulls have
gained upside technical momentum. Wheat is still
technically bearish but will be a follower for at least the
near term. With the U.S. corn and soybean harvest almost
complete, focus of grain market traders turns from U.S.
production to overall worldwide demand for U.S. grains, and
on the upcoming South American planting and growing season.
 

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