Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 14

November 14, 2013 12:47 AM
 

Thursday, November 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place will be closely watching Federal Reserve
chair nominee Janet Yellen’s testimony before the U.S.
Senate Banking Committee Thursday morning. In her prepared
remarks to be given to the committee, which were released
late Wednesday afternoon, Yellen said she would continue
current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s monetary policies and
said the U.S. economy still needs monetary stimulus because
it is performing below its potential. The market place read
Yellen’s remarks as being in the dovish monetary policy
camp. The gold market popped higher Wednesday afternoon
following the release of Yellen’s prepared testimony.

The collective European Union gross domestic product
expanded by a tepid 0.4% in the third quarter, on an
annualized basis. That is down from the 1.2% expansion seen
in the second quarter and lends credibility to last week’s
interest rate cut by the European Central Bank. The EU GDP
report adds to growing worries of worldwide deflationary
pressures setting in, which could push back even further any
"tapering" of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monthly bond-buying
program, called quantitative easing. While some market
watchers think the Fed will announce a cutback in bond
buying as soon as December, other market watchers say
current economic data does not indicate such, including the
worries about worldwide deflationary pressures.

Japan’s GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in the third
quarter, it was reported Thursday. Analysts expected a rise
of 1.7%. That news rallied the Japanese stock market.

In other news overnight, it was reported that China became
the world’s largest gold consumer in the third quarter,
overtaking India.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the
weekly jobless claims report and the U.S. trade report.

Thursday’s Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (Not real
significant nervousness in the market place, but Yellen’s
testimony could move markets.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off).

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and
hit another record high overnight. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,785.20 and then at 1,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,773.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of
1,754.70. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today, on
profit taking from Wednesday’s 13-year high. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Wednesday’s
high of 3,406.75 and then at 3,425.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at 3,375.00 and then at 3,350.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today and hit
a new record high overnight. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 15,800 and then at 15,850.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
15,750 and then at 15,700. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today, on
more short covering after prices hit a two-month low
Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 132 13/32 and then at 132 24/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 132 1/32 and then at
last week’s low of 131 18/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on
more short covering after hitting a four-week low Tuesday.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.27.5 and
then at 127.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 126.10.0 and
then at 126.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is higher early today. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 81.270 and then at last week’s high of
81.580. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of
80.800 and then at 80.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower early
today. Prices Tuesday hit a 4.5-month low. Bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an 11-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In December Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$94.00 and then at $94.50. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at this week’s low of $92.86 and then at
$92.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. Corn bulls need to show some
follow-through strength soon, to better suggest this market
has hit a harvest low. Soybean bulls have gained upside
technical momentum recently. Wheat is still technically
bearish but will remain a follower for at least the near
term. With the U.S. corn and soybean harvest almost
complete, focus of grain market traders turns from U.S.
production to overall worldwide demand for U.S. grains, and
on the upcoming South American planting and growing season.
 

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