Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 18

November 18, 2013 12:52 AM
 

Monday, November 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Amid a quieter geopolitical front, the economic report
highlights for this week appear to be the German ZEW
business survey on Tuesday and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
FOMC minutes on Wednesday afternoon.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
Monday reported the collective GDP of the world’s 34 major
economies rose by 0.5% in the third quarter, from the second
quarter.

Asian stock markets rallied Monday following the release
late Friday of a new economic reform plan from China,
following its Communist party meeting earlier last week. The
plan opens up the financial and stock market sectors more,
and eases restrictions on investment.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes Treasury
international capital flow data and the NAHB housing market
index.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 3.0 (The U.S. stock indexes
continue to trek higher and hit new record or multi-year
highs. There is little risk aversion in the market place to
start the new trading week.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off).

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and
poked to another record high overnight. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,800.00 and
then at 1,810.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at the overnight low of 1,790.60 and then at 1,778.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today and hit
another 13-year high overnight. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 3,421.25 and then at 3,435.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 3,405.25 and
then at 3,386.75. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hit a new
record high overnight. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 16,000 and then at 16,050. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 15,900
and then at Friday’s low of 15,850. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at last week’s high of 132 31/32 and
then at 133 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 132 12/32 and then at 132 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
 
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early
today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 126.29.0 and then at 127.00.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 126.21.0 and then at
126.13.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is near weaker early today.
Bulls are fading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.965 and
then at Friday’s high of 81.210. Shorter-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 80.690 and then at 80.500.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower early
today and hovering not far above last week’s 4.5-month low.
Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices
are in an 11-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In
December Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $94.00 and then at $94.55. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $93.00 and then at
last week’s low of $92.51. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed overnight. U.S. corn harvest is
virtually complete now. Focus switches to the South American
planting and growing season for soybeans and corn, and to
worldwide export demand for U.S. grain. Corn bulls remain
very weak, technically. Last Friday’s news that the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency proposed to reduce the corn
for ethanol component in the Renewable Fuels Standard
remains a bearish weight on the corn market. Soybean bulls
still have the slight near-term technical advantage. Wheat
is still technically bearish and will remain a follower of
corn for at least the near term.
 

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