Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 19

November 19, 2013 01:06 AM
 

Tuesday, November 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the German ZEW economic expectations
survey was released and hit a four-year high. The ZEW
expectations indicator rose to 54.6 in November from 52.8 in
October. However, the number was slightly below market
expectations of a reading of 55.0. However, the ZEW current
conditions index dropped to 28.7 in November from 29.7 in
October. The ZEW news did not have a positive impact on the
European stocks markets, which were mostly weaker Tuesday.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
reported Tuesday the major focus of concern for the Paris-
based body has shifted from the European Union and its
sovereign debt problems to the U.S. and its fiscal and
budget problems. The OECD noted surprise the market place
has focused so much on the timing of the U.S. Federal
Reserve’s expected "tapering" of its monthly bond-buying
program, also called quantitative easing. My take on the
market place’s keener focus on the Fed-tapering matter:
There has been little else of significance for traders and
investors to focus upon. The world geopolitical front has
been quiet, so the actions of the world’s largest economy’s
central bank have been center stage by default. The OECD
also forecast its 34-members countries’ collective economy
will grow by 1.2% in 2013, by 2.3% in 2014 and by 2.7% in
2015.

Not surprisingly then, the market place is awaiting the U.S.
Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes release on Wednesday
afternoon. The minutes will be from the October meeting, and
as always traders and investors will be scrutinizing the
report for any fresh clues on Fed monetary policy moves
upcoming.

Reports say there continues to be slack demand for physical
gold coming out of the two largest gold-importing countries:
China and India.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the
weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales
reports, and the employment cost index.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (The U.S. stock indexes
continue to trek higher and hit new record or multi-year
highs. However, now even the stock market bulls are getting
jittery that the major bull run is at or near an exhaustion
point.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off).

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S.
trading, on profit taking. The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,784.90 and then at Monday’s record high of 1,799.50. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 1,778.00 and
then at 1,765.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today
on profit taking. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the overnight high of 3,390.00 and then at 3,400.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 3,375.00 and then at
3,360.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today, on mild
profit taking. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Monday’s record high of 15,985 and then at
16,000. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Monday’s low of 15,910 and then at 15,850.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher early today,
on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 131 26/32 and then at 132 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 131 13/32 and then at
131 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 125.26.5
and then at 126.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 125.19.5 and then at Monday’s low of
125.11.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is near steady early today.
Bulls are fading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at Monday’s high of 81.090 and then at
Friday’s high of 81.305. Shorter-term support is seen at
Monday’s low of 80.785 and then at 80.550. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower early
today and hovering not far above last week’s 4.5-month low.
Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices
are in an 11-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In
January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $93.76 and then at
$94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
last week’s low of $93.17 and then at $92.50. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were again narrowly mixed overnight. Corn bears are
in firm technical command. Soybean bulls are fading a bit,
while wheat bears are also in full control. Fundamentally,
with the U.S. harvest nearly complete, trader attention
turns to the South American corn and soybean planting and
growing season just ahead. Worldwide export demand for U.S.
grains is also at the forefront of the market place. The
beaten-down corn and wheat futures markets should start to
draw some better demand interest from end-users of those
grains world-wide.
 

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