Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 1

November 1, 2013 02:17 AM
 

Friday, November 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

A feature in the market place late this week has been the
stronger U.S. dollar index and weakening Euro currency. The
greenback got a boost from a more hawkish FOMC statement on
Wednesday, while the Euro has been hurt by ideas the
European Central Bank could further ease its monetary policy
by lowering interest rates at next week’s ECB meeting.
Inflation in the EU was reported at a four-year low on
Thursday, which opened the door farther for as easing move
by the ECB. Also, recent economic data coming out of the
European Union has not been robust. A weekly high close
today (Friday) in the USDX and/or a weekly low close in the
Euro currency futures would suggests those two markets are
reversing previous near-term price trends. China’s
manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 in October versus 51.1 in
September, it was reported overnight. The latest PMI figure
beat expectations and suggests the world’s second-largest
economy continues to expand in a stable manner. That’s a
bullish underlying factor for the raw commodity sector.
However, another report released Friday showed China’s
housing market continues to be worrisomely hot. The recent
rise in China’s short-term interest rates also has the
market place somewhat concerned. U.S. economic data due for
release Friday includes the manufacturing purchasing
managers index, the ISM manufacturing report on business,
and domestic auto sales. Federal Reserve officials will also
be making speeches Friday, which will be closely scrutinized
by the market place.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading.
These bull market runs in the stock indexes are very mature,
with the bullish notions becoming too pervasive. That’s a
warning signal of a top being close at hand. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9- and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
Thursday’s high of 1,764.00 and then at the record high of
1,773.10. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at this
week’s low of 1,750.50 and then at 1,734.50. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Thursday’s
high of 3,394.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,401.75.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of
3,360.75 and then at 3,350.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. A bearish "key
reversal" on the daily chart this week is one early clue
that a market top is in place. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 15,585 and
then at 15,600. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at 15,477 and then at 15,400. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 134 23/32 and
then at 135 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 134 10/32 and then at 134 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0
 
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today on
profit taking. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 127.09.0 and then at 127.16.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 126.31.0 and then at 126.23.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is solidly higher early today
and hit a fresh two-week high on more short covering. While
bears remain in overall near-term technical control, the
bulls are making a strong move. A bullish weekly high close
on Friday would begin to suggest a market low is in place.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 80.865 and then at 81.000. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 80.320 and then at
80.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today and
hit a fresh four-month low overnight. Bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. In December Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $96.65 and then at $97.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $95.50 and then at
$95.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker overnight. The stronger U.S.
dollar index late this week is a bearish underlying factor
for the grains. There has been very good U.S. harvest
progress and that has been bearish for corn and soybeans.
That weakness in corn and soybeans has spilled over into
the wheat market. Technically, the corn bears are still in
firm command, while soybeans are technically neutral on a
near-term basis and wheat bears have the near-term
technical advantage.
 

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