Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 20

November 20, 2013 12:52 AM
 

Wednesday, November 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is awaiting the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC
minutes release on Wednesday afternoon. The minutes will be
from the October meeting, and as always traders and
investors will be scrutinizing the report for any fresh
clues on Fed monetary policy moves upcoming. However, there
is also other important U.S. economic data due for release
Wednesday, including the consumer price index, real
earnings, retail sales, manufacturing and trade inventories,
existing home sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks
report. This is a big day for U.S. economic data. 

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.0 (The FOMC minutes release
Wednesday afternoon could cause at least brief market price
volatility. Also, it’s a heavy slate of other U.S. economic
data Wednesday.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off).

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke did make a speech Tuesday night,
in which he extolled the virtues of continuing an easy money
policy. His remarks were not surprising and the markets were
virtually unfazed by the outgoing Fed chief’s comments.

European and Asian stock markets traded narrowly mixed and
were subdued Wednesday, ahead of the FOMC minutes release.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S.
trading, on more mild profit taking. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,789.70 and then at Monday’s record high of
1,799.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at
1,778.00 and then at 1,765.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early
today. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the overnight high of 3,385.00 and then at 3,400.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
3,370.75 and then at 3,360.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today, on mild
profit taking. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Tuesday’s record high of 15,990 and then at
16,000. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at this week’s low of 15,910 and then at 15,850.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 131 6/32 and then
at 131 16/32 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 130 23/32 and then at 130 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5
 
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.18.5 and
then at this week’s high of 125.26.5. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 125.10.5 and then at
125.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. Bulls are
fading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at this week’s high of 81.090 and then at 81.305.
Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 80.785
and then at 80.550. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady early today
and hovering not far above last week’s 4.5-month low. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in an 11-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In
January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $94.29 and then at
$95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $93.80 and then at last week’s low of
$93.17. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were again narrowly mixed overnight. Not much new.
Corn bears are in firm technical command. Soybean bulls have
faded a bit, while wheat bears are in full control.
Fundamentally, with the U.S. harvest nearly complete, trader
attention turns to the South American corn and soybean
planting and growing season just ahead. Worldwide export
demand for U.S. grains is also at the forefront of the
market place. The beaten-down corn and wheat futures markets
are starting to draw some better demand interest from end-
users of those grains world-wide. There continues to be
Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans, and that is limiting
selling pressure in that market.
 

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