Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 21

November 21, 2013 01:03 AM
 

Thursday, November 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes released Wednesday
afternoon were deemed somewhat hawkish by the market place.
Several members of the committee said at their October
meeting they could see the Fed tapering its $85 billion-a-
month bond-buying program at "one of its next few meetings." 
The committee members also saw the U.S. economy growing at a
"moderate" pace. However, there is still a large contingent
of market watchers who said the latest FOMC minutes revealed
not much new and said any Fed tapering move will first have
to see better U.S. jobs data. This puts the U.S. employment
report in early December very high on traders’ and
investors’ watch lists.

It was reported Thursday that China’s HSBC preliminary
manufacturing report for November came in at 50.4 versus the
final reading of 50.9 in October. Any reading above 50.0
suggests economic growth. However, the market place took the
China data as a bit downbeat.

In other overnight news, European Central Bank president
Mario Draghi said the European Union has seen "disinflation"
for several months. He said he does not expect deflation to
grip the EU, but added the ECB needs to take measures to
prevent deflation, such as the recent interest rate cut by
the ECB. It’s my bias that the world’s central bankers are
more worried about deflation setting in for a long period of
time than they are presently letting on. This could mean the
central banks will try to keep their stimulative monetary
policies in place for as long as possible--and longer than
the market place presently reckons.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the
weekly jobless claims report, the producer price index, the
U.S. flash manufacturing PMI, and the Philadelphia Fed
business outlook survey. 

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (With the FOMC minutes out
of the way, the market place does not have much news
headline risk at present.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off).

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S.
trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 1,793.70 and then
at Monday’s record high of 1,799.50. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,775.50 and then at
1,765.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Wednesday’s
high of 3,398.50 and then at this week’s high of 3,425.75.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of
3,358.50 and then at 3,350.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 15,950 and then at
the record high of 15,990. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at Wednesday’s low of 15,840 and
then at 15,800. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today
and hit a two-month low overnight. The bears are gaining
downside momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 139 26/32 and then at 130 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 129 5/32 and then at
129 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.02.5 and
then at 125.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 124.26.0 and then at the November low of
124.14.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker early today, on a
corrective pullback from decent gains posted Wednesday. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 81.505 and then at the November high
of 81.735. Shorter-term support is seen at 81.00 and then at
Wednesday’s low of 80.750. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady early today
and hovering not far above last week’s 4.5-month low. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in an 11-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In
January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at Wednesday’s high of $94.48 and then at $95.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $93.47 and then at last week’s low of
$93.17. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight on short covering. Traders are
awaiting this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Focus of the market place has turned more to the demand side
of the equation, now that the U.S. harvest is virtually
complete. Technically, corn bears are in firm command.
Soybean bulls have faded a bit, while wheat bears are in
full control.
 

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close