Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 25

November 25, 2013 12:26 AM
 

Monday, November 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The surprise geopolitical news over the weekend is that Iran
has reached agreement with the U.S., Russia and other major
nations to see reduced economic sanctions against Iran in
exchange for its pledge to stop its nuclear weapons
development program. This news was not at all expected and
has pushed crude oil prices lower and helped most world
stock markets push higher Monday. Not only will there now be
more oil on the world market place (from Iran) but also the
Middle East just saw its geopolitical volatility downtick a
notch or two. The U.S. and Iran had not had any diplomatic
relations in over 30 years. The safe-haven gold market also
saw selling pressure tied to the Iran news.

Trading activity and market volumes may decline as this week
progresses, due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on
Thursday.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the
pending home sales index and the Texas manufacturing outlook
survey.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 3.0 (The world market place has
cheered the Iran nuclear de-escalation news, as one major
flashpoint in the world appears to have gone away, at least
for now.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off).

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and
hit another record high overnight. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,815.00 and then at
1,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at
1,800.00 and then at Friday’s low of 1,792.20. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today and hit
another 13-year high overnight. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 3,435.50 and
then at 3,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 3,320.25 and then at Friday’s low of
3,400.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit a new
record high overnight. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 16,100 and then at 16,150. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,000
and then at Friday’s low of 15,950. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today as
the market tries to stabilize after hitting a two-month low
last Thursday. The bears still have some downside momentum.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 130 21/32
and then at 131 even. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 130 6/32 and then at 130 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0
 
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.11.0 and
then at 125.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 125.04.0 and then at 125.00.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. The
greenback bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at Friday’s high of 81.260 and then at last
week’s high of 81.505. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 80.700 and then at the November low of
80.550. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today,
following the weekend Iran news. Bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In January Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
the overnight high of $94.19 and then at $95.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the November low
of $93.17 and then at $92.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. Focus of the market place has
turned to the demand side of the equation, now that the U.S.
harvest is complete. Monday’s weekly USDA export inspections
report will be closely scrutinized by grain traders. Recent
strong demand for U.S. soybeans from China has helped
support the soybean futures market. Technically, corn bears
are still in firm command. Soybean bulls have regained the
near-term technical advantage, and wheat bears remain in
full technical control.
 

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