Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 22

October 22, 2013 01:52 AM
 

Tuesday, October 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Many markets were on hold overnight, awaiting the big U.S.
economic report early this week: the employment report for
September, which is out Tuesday morning. The key non-farm
payrolls number of the jobs report is expected to come in at
up 180,000, while the overall unemployment rate is expected
to be unchanged at 7.3%. It’s questionable how much the
markets will react, and for how long, to the jobs data,
because the report is out 18 days late. The market place may
quickly discount the jobs report and look to upcoming
fresher U.S. economic data for direction. In other overnight
news, reports from China said housing prices in China are
rising rapidly, which is read as a negative due to the
inflationary implications that could cause China’s central
bank to pull in the reins on its monetary policy. Recent
economic data out of China has been upbeat, suggesting the
world’s second-largest economy remains robust. China is a
huge importer of raw commodities. The U.S. dollar index is
slightly higher Tuesday on short covering ahead of the jobs
report. The index is hovering just above last week’s 10.5-
month low. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures have fallen
below the $100.00 level this week. The recently weaker
greenback is bullish for the raw commodity sector, but the
solid near-term price downtrend in crude oil prices is
bearish—so these two key "outside market" forces have worked
to cancel each other out. Other U.S. economic data due for
release Monday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson
Redbook retail sales reports, construction spending, and the
Richmond Fed business survey.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S.
trading and hovering near Monday’s all-time high. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9- and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
the record high of 1,742.00 and then at 1,750.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,727.20 and then at
1,715.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today
and hovering near Monday’s 13-year high. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at Monday’s high of
3,362.25 and then at 3,375.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at Monday’s low of 3,342.50 and then at 3,325.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today and hovering
near Monday’s four-week high. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at last week’s high of 15,351 and
then at 15,400. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at Monday’s low of 15,300 and then at
15,265. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
still have some upside momentum. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at Monday’s high of 134 8/32 and then at
last week’s high of 134 26/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 133 23/32 and then at Monday’s low of
133 18/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
still have some upside momentum. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 126.31.0 and then
at last week’s high of 127.11.5. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at Monday’s low of 126.20.5 and then at 126.16.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early
today and hovering near last week’s 10.5-month low. Bears
remain in firm overall near-term technical control. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
80.000 and then at 80.155. Shorter-term support is seen at
Monday’s low of 79.680 and then at last week’s low of
79.550. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower early
today and hit a nearly four-month low overnight. Bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In December
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $100.00 and then at $101.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of
$99.25 and then at $99.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were weaker overnight. Harvest progress in the U.S.
Corn Belt, with many higher-than-expected yields, is a
bearish underlying market factor for corn and soybeans.
Monday afternoon’s weekly crop progress data showed the
U.S. corn crop 39% harvested, which is less than expected.
Soybean harvest was put at 69% complete, which was about in
line with expectations. Technically, the corn bears are in
command, soybean bears have the slight chart advantage, and
wheat bulls still possess the near-term technical
advantage.
 

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close