Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 23

October 23, 2013 02:08 AM
 

Wednesday, October 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Overnight trading was uneventful. Asian and European stock
markets were pressured following the weak U.S. jobs data
released Tuesday morning. Traders cited the uncertainty of
the U.S. economy’s health as prompting some selling interest
in Asian and European equity markets—despite the U.S. stock
market’s rally following the jobs news Tuesday. The U.S.
employment report bolstered notions the Federal Reserve will
not be "tapering" its monthly bond-buying program, also
called quantitative easing, any time soon. It will likely be
at least the second quarter of 2014 before the Fed makes any
significant changes in its monetary policy. That scenario is
at least a temporary bullish factor for many markets,
including stock indexes, the precious metals and the raw
commodity sector. Reason: The extra money being printed by
the Fed will seek out investment assets. However, that’s
also a potential price inflation problem down the road.
Starting in November the European Central Bank will start
stress tests on 130 financial institutions in the European
Union. It’s a well-known fact that EU banks have a lot of
non-performing loans on their books. Recent EU economic data
has painted a mixed picture, but generally the collective
economies have shown slight growth to lift the bloc out of
recession—but just barely. If the results of the upcoming EU
bank stress tests are not positive, that could quickly erode
investor confidence in the European Union’s financial system
as a whole. U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday
includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, import
and export price indexes, the monthly house price index, the
employment trends index, and the weekly DOE energy stocks
report.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on
profit taking after hitting a record high Tuesday. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9- and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at the overnight high of 1,748.50 and then at Tuesday’s
record high of 1,754.30. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at this week’s low of 1,735.40 and then at 1,726.50.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today on profit
taking following Tuesday’s 13-year high. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 3,357.25 and then at Wednesday’s high of
3,377.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 3,333.50 and then at 3,325.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are lower early today on profit taking.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
15,400 and then at Tuesday’s high of 15,450. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at this week’s
low of 15,300 and then at 15,265. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today and hit
a fresh four-month high overnight. Bulls have good upside
momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 135 13/32 and then at 136 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 134 31/32 and then at
134 26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
 
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today and
hit a fresh four-month high overnight. Bulls have upside
momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 127.24.0 and then at 128.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 127.10.0 and then at 127.00.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early
today and did hit another contract low overnight. Bears
remain in strong overall near-term technical control. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
79.500 and then at 79.720. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight contract low of 79.190 and then at 79.000.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today and
hit a nearly four-month low overnight. Bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In December
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $98.00 and then at the overnight high of
$98.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $96.66 and then at $96.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight, on short covering in corn
and soybeans and on technical buying in wheat. Harvest
progress in the U.S. Corn Belt, with many higher-than-
expected yields, is a bearish underlying market factor for
corn and soybeans. However, decent worldwide demand for
both is keeping a floor under the markets. Technically, the
corn bears are in firm command, soybean bulls and bears are
now on a level technical playing field, and wheat bulls
have the near-term technical advantage.
 

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close