Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 24

October 24, 2013 01:49 AM
 

Thursday, October 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the preliminary HSBC China manufacturing
PMI came in better than expected and hit a seven-month high
of 50.9 in October versus the final PMI reading of 50.2 in
September. A reading above 50.0 suggests economic expansion.
While the PMI report was deemed upbeat by Asian market
watchers, the overhanging worry of rising short-term
interest rates in China muted bullishness. An overheating
housing market in China and the rising short-term interest
rates are sparking fears the Chinese central bank could
tighten monetary policy, which in turn could reduce demand
for raw commodities coming from China. In the European
Union, its manufacturing and services PMI report came in
weaker than expected, at 51.5 in October versus 52.2 in
September. The report caused the Euro currency to backed
down from its 23-month high scored against the U.S. dollar
earlier in the session. Reports from Asia say consumer
demand for physical gold is on the rise, what with holiday
seasons approaching. U.S. economic data due for release
Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the
trade deficit report, the flash manufacturing PMI, and the
Kansas City Fed business survey.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and
hovering near this week’s record high. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9- and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
Tuesday’s record high of 1,754.30 and then at 1,765.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at this week’s
low of 1,734.50 and then at 1,726.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today and
hovering near this week’s 13-year high. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the overnight high
of 3,359.75 and then at this week’s high of 3,377.25. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
3,338.75 and then at this week’s low of 3,322.25. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high
of 15,450 and then at 15,500. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 15,351 and then at this week’s
low of 15,350. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today
and not far below Wednesday’s four-month high. Bulls still
have good upside momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at Wednesday’s high of 135 23/32 and then at 136 even. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 136 7/32 and
then at Wednesday’s low of 134 31/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0
 
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early
today and hovering near Wednesday’s four-month high. Bulls
still have upside momentum. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 127.25.5 and
then at 128.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 127.16.0 and then at 127.10.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker early today and hit
another contract low overnight. Bears remain in strong
overall near-term technical control. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 79.375 and then at 79.500. Shorter-term support is
seen at the overnight contract low of 79.135 and then at
79.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are firmer early today and
seeing short covering after hitting a nearly four-month low
on Wednesday. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. In December Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $97.69 and then at Wednesday’s high of
$98.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $97.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of
$96.16. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed overnight. Traders are awaiting
this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report to get a
gauge on world demand for U.S. grains. Harvest progress in
the U.S. Corn Belt remains a seasonally bearish market
factor for corn and soybeans. Wheat remains supported by
concerns about the Russian wheat crop and some problems in
other wheat-producing regions of the world. Technically,
the corn bears are in firm command, soybean bulls now have
the near-term technical edge, and wheat bulls also have the
near-term technical advantage.
 

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