Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 30

October 30, 2013 02:06 AM
 

Wednesday, October 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Today is the day the market place gets the results of the
U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting, which
began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday at midday. There
will be no press conference by Fed Chairman Bernanke after
this meeting. The FOMC is expected to leave its very
accommodative U.S. monetary policy unchanged, but as usual
traders and investors will be closely parsing the FOMC
statement, looking for any clues on the timing of upcoming
changes in policy. The sense of the market place presently
is that the Fed will not start to cut back on its monthly
bond purchases (quantitative easing) until early next year—
most likely the second quarter at the earliest. This
scenario is bullish for the raw commodity market bulls,
including the precious metals markets. However, any hints in
the FOMC statement Wednesday afternoon that the "tapering"
of monetary policy could come sooner than the second quarter
of 2014 would likely be bearish for most markets. Any
surprises coming from the FOMC statement Wednesday afternoon
could cause brief volatility in many markets. There is also
other key U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday,
including the ADP national employment report, real earnings
and the consumer price index. Economic data coming out of
Europe this week has been mostly upbeat, but has also been
overshadowed by anticipation ahead of the FOMC statement.
The rise in short-term interest rates in China remains a bit
of a worry to the world market place. China is the second-
largest world economy and a voracious consumer of raw
commodities. Any significant changes in Chinese monetary
policy—especially tightening of it--would impact world
markets.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and
once gain hit a record high. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
record high of 1,773.10 and then at 1,785.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,766.00 and then at this week’s low of 1,752.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 6.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today and hit
another 13-year high overnight. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at 3,415.00 and then at
3,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 3,384.50 and then at Tuesday’s low of 3,368.50. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit a new
record high overnight. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 15,700 and then at 15,750. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 15,600
and then at Tuesday’s low of 15,545. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today and
hovering near a four-month high. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at last week’s high of 135 24/32 and then at
136 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
135 8/32 and then at 134 30/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0
 
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today and
hit a fresh four-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 127.30.0 and then
at 128.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 127.21.5 and then at this week’s low of
127.12.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early
today. Bears remain in overall near-term technical control.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 79.755 and then at
80.000. Shorter-term support is seen at 79.500 and then at
Tuesday’s low of 79.340. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In
December Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at the overnight high of $97.82 and then at
Tuesday’s high of $98.57. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $97.00 and then at $96.50. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight on short covering following
recent selling pressure. There has been very good U.S.
harvest progress and that has been bearish for corn and
soybeans. That weakness in corn and soybeans has spilled
over into the wheat market. Rain is coming to the Corn
Belt, which will delay harvesting, but not likely be a
major market factor. Grain market traders continue to watch
for fresh export demand for U.S. grains. Corn is getting
cheap enough that it is drawing attention from world corn
importers. Technically, the corn bears are in firm command,
soybean bulls and bears are now on a level near-term
technical playing field, while soybean and wheat bulls are
even.
 

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