Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 4

October 4, 2013 01:56 AM
 

Friday, October 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Asian and European markets were weaker in a subdued
atmosphere Friday, as the partial U.S. government shutdown
enters its fourth day with no end in sight. There is growing
anxiety in the world market place but not yet panic. If the
situation drags on over the weekend and into next week,
which appears likely at this time, then trader and investor
anxiety will increase come Monday morning. If confidence in
the market place continues to wane, the odds will grow that
daily price volatility will increase in many markets. In
mid-October the U.S. government will hit its debt ceiling.
If that arguably more important matter cannot be agreed upon
by U.S. lawmakers in a timely manner, then it could be a
much bigger event for the market place than the current
budget impasse. Fresh U.S. budget news coming out of
Washington Friday could be market-sensitive. There is no
U.S. economic data due for release Friday with the U.S.
government partially shut down. The Labor Department’s
employment report was due out Friday morning. There are four
Federal Reserve officials due to give speeches Friday
afternoon. They will be closely monitored, to see if those
Fed officials remark about the U.S. budget impasse’s
potential impact on the U.S. economy.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
Thursday’s high of 1,684.00 and then at this week’s high of
1,692.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at
Thursday’s low of 1,663.60 and then at 1,650.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. The
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,225.00 and
then at this week’s high of 3,251.25. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 3,199.50 and then at
Thursday’s low of 3,189.25. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering. Bulls have faded. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 14,950 and then at 15,000.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
Thursday’s low of 14,875 and then at 14,850. Shorter-term
moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES


December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. The
bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133 15/32 and
then at this week’s high of 133 29/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at this week’s low of 132 22/32 and then at 132
16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. The
bulls still have some upside technical momentum. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are netural early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.20.5 and then
at this week’s high of 126.27.5. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 126.12.0 and then at
Thursday’s low of 126.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer early today on
short covering in a bear market after prices Thursday hit an
eight-month low. Bears remain in firm overall near-term
technical command. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 80.155 and then at Wednesday’s high
of 80.380. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 79.780 and then at this week’s low of 79.720. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are firmer early today.
Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical
playing field. In November Nymex crude, look for buy stops
to reside just above resistance at this week’s high of
$104.38 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $102.90 and then
at $102.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. Corn and
wheat were slightly higher and soybeans were modestly
weaker. Wheat bulls continue to gain upside near-term
technical momentum. The "risk-off" mentality in the market
place this week is a bearish underlying factor for all of
the grains. U.S. harvest of soybeans and corn is
progressing rapidly this week, which is bearish for both
markets. With much of USDA closed, there is a lack of fresh
fundamental news for grain traders to digest, and that
favors the bearish camp due to the uncertainty of the
matter.
 

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