Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 7

October 7, 2013 02:17 AM
 

Monday, October 7--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Asian and European markets were mostly weaker overnight,
with U.S. stock indexes solidly lower in early electronic
trading Monday, as the partial U.S. government shutdown
enters its seventh day with still no end in sight. Now the
market place is wondering if and when credit rating agencies
will downgrade the U.S. government’s credit rating. Such
could accelerate trader and investor anxieties. While there
is growing unease in the world market place there is still
not yet panic.  However, as this situation drags on anxiety
will continue to increase. Soon the U.S. government will
also hit its debt ceiling. If that important matter cannot
be agreed upon by U.S. lawmakers in a timely manner, then it
could be a much bigger event for the market place than the
current budget impasse. Russian President Putin and the
German Bundesbank on Monday warned that President Obama
needs to overcome the government debt/budget crisis very
soon, or else the matter will start to impact other world
economies. If risk aversion in the market place continues to
increase, the odds will grow that daily price volatility
will increase in many markets. Fresh U.S. budget news coming
out of Washington Monday could be market-sensitive. The
World Bank and International Monetary Fund hold annual
meetings in Washington, D.C., at the end of this week. It
would be at the very least awkward to see the host nation
and the world’s leading economy and military hobbled by a
government shutdown in effect. Any proclamations or
overtures made by the U.S. at the meeting would be somewhat
discounted by the inability of U.S. lawmakers to agree on a
spending budget. China’s Golden Week holiday season is
winding down and the world’s second-largest economy will be
back at work in full force on Tuesday. The market place is
keeping an eye on violence in Egypt that killed dozens in
Cairo over the weekend. U.S. economic data due for release
Monday includes consumer installment credit. A lack of fresh
U.S. government economic data is also an underlying bearish
factor for many markets, due to the uncertainty of the
situation and no fresh indicators to gauge the U.S.
economy’s health.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are lower early today. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
the overnight high of 1,678.00 and then at last week’s high
of 1,692.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at last week’s low of 1,663.60 and then at 1,650.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today. The
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 3,226.00 and then at Friday’s high of
3,239.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 3,201.75 and then at 3,189.25. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0.

Dow futures: Prices are solidly lower early today and hit a
four-week low overnight. Bulls have faded. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 14,900 and then at
14,950. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 14,850 and then at 14,800. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES


December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on some
safe-haven demand. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 133 16/32 and then at last week’s high of 133 29/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133 5/32
and then at 133 even. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on
safe-haven demand. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are netural
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 126.17.0 and then at last week’s high of 126.27.5.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
126.09.0 and then at Friday’s low of 126.04.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. Bears
remain in firm overall near-term technical command. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
Friday’s high of 80.285 and then at 80.500. Shorter-term
support is seen at 80.000 and then at last week’s low of
79.720. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
In November Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at the overnight high of $103.59 and then
at $104.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at the overnight low of $102.50 and then at $102.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed overnight. The "risk-off"
mentality in the overall market place at present is a
mildly bearish underlying factor for all of the grains.
U.S. harvest of soybeans and corn has been delayed in much
of the Corn Belt due to weekend rains, and that is just a
bit bullish for those markets. With much of USDA closed,
there is a keen lack of fresh fundamental news for grain
traders to digest, and that favors the bearish camp due to
the uncertainty of the matter. All of the above suggests
sideways and choppy trading conditions in the grains this
week.
 

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close