Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 10

September 10, 2013 01:54 AM
 

Tuesday, September 10--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Notions are receding that the U.S. will attack the Syrian
regime over its alleged use of chemical weapons. Russia has
put forth a plan to put Syria’s chemical weapons under
international control. President Obama said the plan could
avoid a U.S. strike on Syria. U.S. citizens are also
becoming less and less in favor of a U.S. military operation
against Syria’s regime. This development has increased
investor risk appetite in the market place—to the detriment
of safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries. On the
economic front, China’s industrial output rose by 10.4% on
an annual basis in August, which beat market expectations of
a 9.9% gain. China’s retail sales also beat forecasts and
were up 13.4% in August, year on year. This adds to a string
of generally upbeat economic data coming out of China and
Asia. Such is an underlying bullish factor for the raw
commodity sector. Reports Tuesday said gold imports to India
fell by more than 90% during August, year on year, due to
government-imposed import taxes. Traders and investors are
looking ahead to next week’s meeting of the U.S. Federal
Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). A slight majority of
the market place believes the U.S. central bank at next
week’s meeting will announce it will begin to scale back, or
"taper" its monthly bond-buying program. For the past
several weeks the market place has been fixated on what the
U.S. central bank will announce at the conclusion of next
week’s FOMC meeting. U.S. economic data due for release
Tuesday includes the Manpower quarterly U.S. employment
outlook survey, the NFIB small business index, and the
Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs weekly retail sales
reports.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are higher early today and have hit
a fresh three-week high. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,685.00 and then at the
all-time high of 1,705.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,669.20 and then
at this week’s low of 1,654.90. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today and hit
a fresh 12-year high overnight. The bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at 3,185.00 and then at
3,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 3,167.25 and then at 3,150.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.5.

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit a fresh
three-week high overnight. Bulls have gained good upside
momentum recently. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 15,150 and then at 15,200. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 15,085
and then at 15,000. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today and
hovering near the recent contract low. Bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 130 25/32 and
then at 131 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract
low of 129 25/32 and then at 129 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today and
hovering near the recent contract low. Bears have the
strong overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 123.00.0 and then at the overnight high
of 123.07.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 122.24.0 and
then at 122.16.0 Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early
today. Bulls and bears are on an overall level near-term
technical playing field as the bulls have faded just
recently. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 82.260 and then at 82.500. Shorter-term
support is seen at Monday’s low of 81.905 and then at
81.750. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower early
today, on a corrective pullback from recent gains and on
lessening odds of a U.S. military attack on Syria’s regime.
Crude oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. In October Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $108.00 and then at $109.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at $107.00
and then at $106.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker overnight. Soybean bulls are
maintaining their technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears
remain in firm technical command. While the weather
forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt call for very warm and dry
conditions in the region in the next couple days, it
appears the late-summer weather market has played out in
the grain futures markets. It appears yield damage to the
crops has already been mostly factored into present prices.
For grain market prices to gain more upside in the near
term, some new fundamental news will have to occur. Focus
is on Thursday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand
report, at which time updated corn and soybean production
forecasts will be given by USDA.
 

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