Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 12

September 12, 2013 01:44 AM
 

Thursday, September 12--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Improved investor risk appetite is the feature in the market
place this week. The specter of a U.S. military strike
against Syria has receded significantly this week, amid a
Russian plan to have Syria’s chemical weapons placed under
international control. U.S. Secretary of State Kerry will
meet with his Russian counterpart Thursday in Geneva,
Switzerland, to discuss the matter. Asian stock markets were
lifted Thursday on the increased investor risk appetite. In
overnight news, there was weaker-than-expected economic data
coming out of the European Union Thursday, which pressured
European stock markets. Euro zone industrial production fell
by 1.5% from June to July, for the steepest one-month
decline in a year. Year-on-year the July decline in
industrial production was 2.1%, which put Euro zone
industrial production at a three-year low. This important
piece of economic data now calls into question the ability
of the European Union’s collective economy to pull out of
recession. The next important piece of U.S. economic news on
the docket is Thursday morning’s weekly jobless claims
report. Many traders and investors are looking ahead to next
week’s meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market
Committee (FOMC). A slight majority of the market place
believes the U.S. central bank at next week’s meeting will
announce it will begin to scale back, or "taper" its monthly
bond-buying program. For the past several weeks the market
place has been fixated on what the U.S. central bank will
announce at the conclusion of next week’s FOMC meeting. U.S.
economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly
jobless claims report, import and export price indexes, and
the monthly Treasury budget statement.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage and have
upside momentum on their side. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s
high of 1,690.30 and then at the all-time high of 1,705.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s
low of 1,677.80 and then at 1,669.20. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today.
The bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
this week’s high of 3,189.25 and then at 3,200.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 3,167.25 and then at 3,160.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls have
gained good upside momentum recently. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 15,350 and then at
15,400. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 15,300 and then at 15,250. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on
more short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at 131 16/32 and then at 131
26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
131 1/32 and then at 130 16/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on
more short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the
strong overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 123.24.0 and then at 124.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 123.11.0 and
then at 123.00.0 Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is near steady early today.
Bulls and bears are on an overall level near-term technical
playing field as the bulls have faded recently. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 81.795 and then at 82.000. Shorter-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.595 and then
at 81.395. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are higher early today. Crude
oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. In October Nymex crude, look for buy stops
to reside just above resistance at $109.00 and then at
$110.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$108.00 and then at the overnight low of $107.30. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were weaker overnight on position evening. Focus is
on Thursday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand
report, at which time updated corn and soybean production
forecasts will be given by USDA. There could be some
surprises in this report, and if there are, it’s likely
those surprises could be bullish. Soybean bulls have the
near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears remain
in firm technical command. Weather forecasts for the U.S.
Corn Belt are now becoming less of market factor by the
day.
 

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