Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 13

September 13, 2013 02:06 AM
 

Friday, September 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It was generally quiet in Asian and European markets
overnight, except the gold and silver markets, which saw
solid follow-through selling pressure from Thursday’s strong
losses. The perceived decreasing odds of U.S. military
action against the Syrian regime continue to pressure safe-
haven gold. Many traders and investors this week have been
looking ahead to next week’s meeting of the U.S. Federal
Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). A majority of the
market place believes the U.S. central bank at next week’s
meeting will announce it will begin to scale back, or
"taper" its monthly bond-buying program. Some reckon the Fed
will announce a $10 billion or $15 billion reduction in its
$85 billion-a-month bond-buying program. The surprise to the
markets could be if the Fed either does nothing at this
meeting, or is more aggressive in its initial reduction in
bond purchases. For the past several weeks the market place
has been fixated on what the U.S. central bank will announce
at the conclusion of next week’s FOMC meeting. The Japanese
Nikkei news service reported overnight that President Obama
late next week will name Larry Summers as the next chairman
of the Federal Reserve. The U.S. dollar index rallied
modestly on this report, while gold saw some added selling
pressure—on notions Summers as a Fed chairman would be more
hawkish on U.S. monetary policy than would present Fed vice
chair Janet Yellen. U.S. economic data due for release
Friday includes the producer price index, retail sales,
manufacturing and trade inventories, and the University of
Michigan consumer sentiment survey.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today, on
mild profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
overnight high of 1,680.60 and then at this week’s high of
1,690.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at
1,669.20 and then at this week’s low of 1,654.90. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early
today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 3,175.25 and then at this
week’s high of 3,189.25. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
3,160.00 and then at 3,150.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s
high of 15,275 and then at 15,300. Sell stops likely reside
just below technical support at Thursday’s low of 15,220 and
then at 15,200. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early
today. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at 131 16/32 and then at this week’s high of 131 26/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 130 22/32 and
then at this week’s low of 130 3/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears
have the strong overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 123.13.0 and
then at this week’s high of 123.26.5. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 122.30.0 and then at
this week’s low of 122.25.0 Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. Bulls
and bears are on an overall level near-term technical
playing field. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.915 and
then at 82.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 81.695 and then at this week’s low of
81.520. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today. Crude
oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. In October Nymex crude, look for buy stops
to reside just above resistance at $108.00 and then at the
overnight high of $108.74. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $107.31 and then
at $107.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker overnight. With Thursday’s USDA
monthly supply and demand report digested and out of the
way, focus will now turn to early yield reports on the
harvesting of the U.S. corn and soybean crops in the Corn
Belt—and on any fresh export demand for U.S. grains.
Soybean bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Corn and wheat bears remain in firm technical command. My
bias remains that while corn is still fully technically
bearish, the price downside is limited at the present low
levels.
 

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