Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 17

September 17, 2013 02:03 AM
 

Tuesday, September 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Asian and European stocks markets were a bit anxious
overnight as traders and investors await the results of this
week’s meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market
Committee (FOMC). The meeting begins on Tuesday morning and
ends at midday Wednesday. The fact the Fed will at some
point down the road begin to tap the brakes on its very easy
money policies is factored into the market place. However,
the specific timing of Fed action on monetary policy is the
uncertain factor that has traders and investors uncertain
and just a bit anxious. A majority of the market place
believes the U.S. central bank will at this week’s meeting
announce it will begin to scale back, or "taper" its monthly
bond-buying program. Some reckon the Fed will announce a $10
billion or $15 billion reduction in its $85 billion-a-month
bond-buying program. The surprise to the markets could be if
the Fed either does nothing at this meeting, or is more
aggressive in its initial reduction in bond purchases. The
FOMC will also update its forecasts for U.S. economic
conditions in the coming months, which will also be closely
examined by the market place. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will
also hold a press conference Wednesday afternoon. In other
news overnight, the German ZEW economic survey came in at a
reading of 49.6 in September versus 42.0 in August, which is
the highest level in over three years. U.S. economic data
due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs
and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the consumer price
index, chain store sales, real earnings, Treasury
international capital flow data, and the NAHB housing market
index.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on
mild profit taking after hitting a six-week high on Monday.
Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage as prices hover not far below the all-time high.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the all-time high of
1,705.00 and then at 1,715.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,683.40 and then at 1,675.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today and
are seeing mild profit taking after hitting a 12-year high
on Monday. The bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 3,175.00 and then at 3,189.25. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 3,150.00 and then at
3,130.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady Tuesday on mild profit
taking after hitting a six-week high Monday. Bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Monday’s high of 15,475 and then at 15,500. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at Monday’s low
of 15,410 and then at 15,350. Shorter-term moving averages
are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-
day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on
short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 131 27/32 and then at 132 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 131 18/32 and
then at Monday’s low of 131 11/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher early
today. Short covering is featured. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 124.16.0 and then at the overnight high
of 124.25.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 124.00.0 and
then at 123.24.0 Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is lower early today. Bulls
are weakening, technically. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
81.505 and then at 81.750. Shorter-term support is seen at
Monday’s low of 81.135 and then at 81.000. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower early
today. Prices are scoring a bearish "outside day" down on
the daily bar chart. Crude oil bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage but are fading today. In
October Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $107.00 and then at $107.50. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of
$105.59 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. Soybeans
were solidly lower again overnight, wheat was weaker and
corn near steady. Rainfall in the U.S. Corn Belt is
somewhat helping late-maturing soybean plants, and that’s
bearish for futures prices. Focus is on early yield reports
on the harvesting of the U.S. corn and soybean crops in the
Corn Belt—and on any fresh export demand for U.S. grains.
 

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