Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 18

September 18, 2013 01:55 AM
 

Wednesday, September 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

After weeks or even months of anticipation and speculation
in the market place, today is the day many traders and
investors have been eagerly awaiting. Wednesday afternoon
the market place gets the results of this week’s FOMC
meeting, including a press conference by Fed Chairman Ben
Bernanke. Most hope the Fed will lay out the specific timing
of a scaling back of its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying
program, which is also called quantitative easing. A
majority of the market place believes the U.S. central bank
will announce it will begin to scale back, or "taper" its
monthly bond purchases by around $10 billion or $15 billion.
The surprise to the markets could be if the Fed either does
nothing at this meeting, or is more aggressive in its
initial reduction in bond purchases. Importantly, the FOMC
on Wednesday will also update its forecasts for U.S.
economic conditions in the coming months, which will also be
closely examined by the market place. Look for active
trading in markets Wednesday afternoon after the FOMC
information is out, including potential high volatility in
some markets. In other overnight news, European Union
construction activity rose for the fourth month in a row in
July, at up 0.3% from June, but still down 1.2% from July of
2012. Germany led the rise, while Spain’s decline in
construction activity weighed down the collective rise in
activity. Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday
includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new
residential construction, and the weekly DOE liquid energy
stocks report.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher early today and
hovering not far below the record high scored in August.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the all-time high of
1,705.00 and then at 1,715.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at this week’s low of 1,687.90 and then at
1,675.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today and are
not far below a 12-year high hit on Monday. The bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,200.00 and
then at this week’s high of 3,213.25. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at 3,175.00 and then at this week’s low of
3,156.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady Wednesday. Bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at 15,500 and
then at 15,550. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at this week’s low of 15,410 and then at
15,350. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132
6/32 and then at 132 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
Tuesday’s low of 131 14/32 and then at this week’s low of
131 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 124.09.5 and then at this week’s high of 124.25.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at 124.00.0 and then at
123.22.0 Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is near steady early today.
Bulls are weakening, technically. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of
81.505 and then at 81.750. Shorter-term support is seen at
this week’s low of 81.135 and then at 81.000. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer early today on a
corrective bounce from selling pressure seen Monday and
Tuesday. Crude oil bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but have faded this week. In October
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $106.57 and then at
$107.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
this week’s low of $104.94 and then at the September low of
$104.21. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed overnight. Rainfall in the U.S.
Corn Belt the past several days is somewhat helping late-
maturing soybeans, and that’s been bearish for futures
prices this week. Focus is on early yield reports on the
harvesting of the U.S. corn and soybean crops in the Corn
Belt—and on any fresh export demand for U.S. grains.
Technically, the soybean bulls still have the overall
advantage, while corn and wheat market bears are in firm
technical command.
 

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