Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 24

September 24, 2013 02:10 AM
 

Tuesday, September 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Amid a lack of major geopolitical developments or markets-
moving economic data the past several days, the world market
place continues to buzz about last week’s decision by the
U.S. Federal Reserve to not "taper" its monthly bond-buying
program—and when might the Fed begin that endeavor. Several
Federal Reserve officials have already spoken so far early
this week, with the common thread among them being that the
Fed would begin to wind down its quantitative easing when
U.S. economic conditions warrant. At present, most of those
Fed officials do not believe the U.S. economy is quite
strong enough to pull away from the monthly bond buying.
However, some of those Fed officials have suggested the
tapering could still come in 2013. Just Tuesday morning, New
York Fed president William Dudley told CNBC the Fed could
implement tapering yet this year and be finished with the
bond buying entirely sometime during 2014. Ironically, Fed
Chairman Ben Bernanke’s vision of a more transparent Fed
during his tenure has been severely blurred as his
leadership comes to an end, due to the market place’s
inability to clearly read the monetary course of Bernanke
and the FOMC. Meantime, European Central Bank officials
Tuesday suggested the ECB could implement new monetary
policy easing measures if the European Union economies do
not show better growth prospects. That helped to put
downside price pressure on the Euro currency. The U.S.
budget and debt ceiling issues are looming and will be
debated by the U.S. Congress and the Obama administration
the next few weeks. This will become a front-burner matter
for the market place, and one that could be significantly
bearish for most markets, as there is already talk the U.S.
government could shut down for a short time. U.S. economic
data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman
Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the
S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the monthly house price
index, the consumer confidence index, and the Richmond Fed
business survey.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 1,707.40
and then at last Friday’s high of 1,718.40. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at last week’s low of 1,687.90 and
then at 1,675.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early
today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
3,225.00 and then at Monday’s high of 3,237.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 3,198.00 and
then at 3,183.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
15,350 and then at Monday’s high of 15,385. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 15,300 and
then at 15,250. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on more
short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. However, the bulls are gaining some
upside momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 132 15/32 and then at 133 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 132 1/32 and then at
Monday’s low of 131 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. However,
the bulls have gained upside momentum recently. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 125.24.5 and then at last week’s high of 125.31.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
125.16.0 and then at Monday’s low of 125.02.5 Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early
today on short covering in a bear market. Prices are
hovering not far above last week’s 7.5-month low. Bears are
in technical command. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.740 and
then at 80.949. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 80.520 and then at Monday’s low of 80.395.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower early
today and hit a six-week low overnight. In November Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$104.00 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $103.00 and then
at $102.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight on short covering. Not much
new. Soybean and some corn harvesting are picking up speed
this week. Focus is on early yield reports in the U.S. Corn
Belt. Technically, the soybean bulls still have the overall
advantage, but are fading. Corn and wheat market bears
remain in firm technical command. My bias is that the corn
and wheat markets do not have strong downside price
potential at present levels. It’s also my bias that
soybeans will trade sideways to lower in the coming weeks.
 

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