Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 25

September 25, 2013 01:36 AM
 

Wednesday, September 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The U.S. budget and debt ceiling issues are moving to the
front burner of the market place. The U.S. government will
have to at least partially shut down at the end of this
month if it does not pass a budget. Also, in mid-October the
U.S. will hit its borrowing limit. There has already been
harsh rhetoric from both political parties on the matters. A
U.S. senator is already filibustering on the U.S. budget.
This matter could be significantly bearish for most markets
in the coming weeks, as there is already talk some of the
U.S. government will shut down for a short time. Traders are
awaiting fresh U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday,
which includes the weekly DOE energy stocks report, the
weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the advance report
on durable goods, and new residential home sales. Recent
U.S. economic data has been a mixed bag, with some reports
showing modest growth and others suggesting continued
stagnation. The recent ambiguous U.S. data seems to tilt in
favor of the Federal Reserve continuing its monthly bond-
buying program (quantitative easing) for at least a while
longer.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today, on
mild profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 1,701.00
and then at this week’s high of 1,707.40. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,687.70
and then at 1,675.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today,
on mild profit taking. The bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 3,219.25 and then at Tuesday’s high of
3,230.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s
low of 3,198.00 and then at 3,183.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today, on more
profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 15,300 and then at Tuesday’s high of
15,365. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 15,250 and then at 15,200. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today and hit
a fresh six-week high overnight. The bulls are gaining
upside technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 133
16/32 and then at 134 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
133 even and then at the overnight low of 132 28/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
 
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today and
hit a fresh two-month high overnight. The bulls have gained
upside technical momentum recently. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.02.5 and
then at the July high of 126.14.5. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 125.25.5 and then at Tuesday’s
low of 125.16.0 Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is lower early today. Bears
are in technical command. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of
80.745 and then at 80.949. Shorter-term support is seen at
this week’s low of 80.395 and then at last week’s low of
80.155. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher early
today, on short covering after hitting a six-week low
Tuesday. In November Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $104.00 and then at $105.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $103.11 and then at Tuesday’s low of
$102.30. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight on more short covering.
Soybean and some corn harvesting are picking up speed this
week. Early yield reports in the U.S. Corn Belt are
starting to roll in. Traders are looking ahead to next
Monday’s USDA quarterly grain stocks report. Technically,
the soybean bulls still have the overall advantage, but
have faded, to begin to suggest a market top is in place.
Corn and wheat market bears remain in firm technical
command. Some export demand for U.S. corn and soybeans is
surfacing with those markets at lower price levels.
 

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