Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 4

September 4, 2013 01:43 AM
 

Wednesday, September 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is still anxious regarding the U.S. threat
to attack Syria after the Assad regime allegedly used
chemical weapons against Syrian citizens. The U.S. Congress
appears to be backing President Obama on his notion to use
U.S. firepower to strike Syria. Still, it appears unlikely
that a U.S. strike will occur this week, as congressional
debate and voting on the matter will not be completed likely
until sometime next week. European and Asian stocks were
weaker due in part to the worries regarding the Syrian
situation. However, losses in European stocks were limited
by some more upbeat economic data coming out of the European
Union. The data company Markit reported EU business activity
is on the upswing, as its PMI rose to 51.5 in August from
50.5 in July. Interest rates continue to rise in the major
economies of the world. German five-year notes fetched a 21-
month high yield of 1.00% Wednesday. U.S. bond yields are
also at two-plus year highs. Such suggests growing world
economies, which in turn is a bullish factor for the raw
commodity sector, from a demand perspective. Major world
economic data is just around the corner. The important U.S.
jobs report is out on Friday. The Bank Japan, Bank of
England and European Central Bank hold their monthly
monetary policy meetings on Thursday. There is a Group of 20
nations meeting this week. U.S. economic data due for
release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage
applications survey, the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson
Redbook retail sales surveys, the trade deficit report, the
Fed’s beige book, the ISM New York business report, the
IDB/TIPP economic optimism index, and domestic auto sales.--
Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today. Prices
are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day)
are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 1,648.80 and then
at 1,655.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at Tuesday’s low of 1,631.00 and then at the August low of
1,625.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early
today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
3,100.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of 3,113.25. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,083.25
and then at 3,075.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today. Prices
are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 14,870 and then at Tuesday’s high of 14,915.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
14,800 and then at Tuesday’s low of 14,765. Shorter-term
moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today and
hovering not far above the recent contract low. Bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 132 even and then at 132 16/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 131 8/32 and
then at 131 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today.
Bears have the strong overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 124.19.0 and then at 124.24.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 124.12.0 and then at 124.08.0
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker on mild profit
taking after hitting a six-week high on Tuesday. Bulls still
have some near-term technical momentum on their side. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 82.710 and then at Tuesday’s high of
82.970. Shorter-term support is seen at 82.315 and then at
82.185. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are weaker early today on
more corrective downside pressure after hitting a more than
two-year high last week. Crude bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls may have
become exhausted with last week’s big push higher in prices.
In October Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at Tuesday’s high of $108.83 and then at
$109.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$107.50 and then at $107.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower overnight, with soybeans leading losses.
The weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt call for the
next week to be very warm and dry in the region. That is
somewhat bullish for soybeans. But as the late-summer
weather market plays out in the grain futures markets, it’s
now the case of the damage to the crops already being
mostly factored into present prices. A bull market must be
fed "fresh" fundamental inputs often, and the dry and warm
weather in the Corn Belt is not fresh any more. For grain
market prices to gain more upside in the near term, some
new fundamental news will have to occur. Maybe that will
come from the demand side, or from actual yield results
once the corn and soybean harvests begin in earnest.
 

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