Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 5

September 5, 2013 01:46 AM
 

Thursday, September 5--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The world market place is quieter and on hold Thursday
morning, as there were no major economic or geopolitical
developments overnight, and as major world economic data is
on deck. The Bank Japan kept its monetary policy steady at
Thursday’s meeting, which was expected. The Bank of England
and European Central Bank were holding their monthly
monetary policy meetings on Thursday. Both were expected to
make no major adjustments to their policies. However, as
usual the wording of the central banks’ statements will be
closely scrutinized for clues on future monetary policy
direction. Also, Thursday marks the beginning of the G-20
political and finance ministers meeting in Russia. There is
a big batch of U.S. economic data due for release Thursday,
including the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger
job-cut report, the ADP national employment report, revised
productivity and costs, manufacturing shipments, orders and
inventories, the global services PMI, the weekly DOE liquid
energy stocks report, ICSC chain store sales trends, and the
ISM non-manufacturing report. However, the big economic news
of the week and of the month will be Friday morning’s U.S.
jobs report. Many market watchers believe Friday’s jobs data
will tip the Federal Reserve’s hand on when the "tapering"
of U.S. monetary policy will begin. Forecasts call for the
key U.S. non-farm jobs number to come in at up 175,000 in
August. The overall unemployment rate is expected to be
unchanged from July, at 7.4%. The market place is still
concerned regarding the U.S. threat to attack Syria after
the Assad regime allegedly used chemical weapons against
Syrian citizens. However, the aforementioned economic data
is presently dominating focus of the market place. The U.S.
Congress is mostly backing President Obama on his notion to
use U.S. firepower to strike Syria. It is unlikely a U.S.
military strike will occur this week, as congressional
debate and voting on the matter will not be completed likely
until sometime next week.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today. Prices
are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart, but now just barely. The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,656.50 and then at 1,667.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,650.40
and then at Wednesday’s low of 1,635.30. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early
today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage and have regained upside near-term momentum. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the overnight high of 3,135.00 and then at the August high
of 3,148.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 3,125.00 and then at 3,113.25. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Prices are
still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Wednesday’s high of 14,940 and then at 15,000. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 14,900 and
then at 14,845. Shorter-term moving averages are still
bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today and
hovering not far above the recent contract low. Bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 131 even and then at the overnight high
of 131 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 130 21/32 and then at 130 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today and
hit a fresh contract low overnight. Bears have the strong
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
122.24.0 and then at 123.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight contract low of 122.17.0 and then at 122.10.0
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is near steady early
Thursday. Bulls still have a bit of near-term technical
momentum on their side. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
82.685 and then at this week’s high of 82.970. Shorter-term
support is seen at this week’s low of 82.350 and then at
82.260. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer early today. Crude
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, amid
upbeat economic data coming out of the world’s major
countries, and amid the Syria tensions. In October Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
the overnight high of $108.04 and then at this week’s high
of $108.83. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at $107.00 and then at $106.77. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were weaker overnight, with soybeans again leading
losses. The soybean market had been the leader on the
upside, but bean bulls have faded badly. Corn and wheat
bears remain in firm technical command. While the extended
weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt call for very warm
and dry conditions in the region, it appears the late-
summer weather market has played out in the grain futures
markets. It appears yield damage to the crops has already
been mostly factored into present prices. For grain market
prices to gain more upside in the near term, some new
fundamental news will have to occur. Maybe that will come
from the demand side, or from actual yield results once the
corn and soybean harvests begin in earnest. The grains
could also react to key "outside market" forces in the near
term.

 

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