Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 6

September 6, 2013 01:41 AM
 

Friday, September 6--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

World markets were quieter overnight, as traders and
investors await the big economic news of the week and of the
month: Friday morning’s U.S. jobs report. Many market
watchers believe Friday’s jobs data will tip the Federal
Reserve’s hand on when the "tapering" of U.S. monetary
policy will begin. Forecasts call for the key U.S. non-farm
jobs number to come in at up 175,000 in August. The overall
unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged from July, at
7.4%. However, the whisper in the market place is that the
non-farms payroll number could come in above 200,000, given
this week’s upbeat U.S. economic data. And the bigger
surprise to the market place would be a significantly weaker
than expected non-farm jobs number. Look for volatile price
action in many markets in the immediate aftermath of the
employment data. An important element in the market place
mix is rising world interest rates. The 10-year U.S.
Treasury note is flirting with a 3% yield. If the note yield
pushes above 3%, many market watchers believe that will be a
game-changer for many big money managers—mostly bearish for
the world stock markets. If that is the case, it could wind
up being bullish for the precious metals and raw commodity
sector, due to the fact that money flowing out of equities
will seek other asset classes. The market place is still
concerned regarding the U.S. threat to attack Syria after
the Assad regime allegedly used chemical weapons against
Syrian citizens. However, economic data this week has been
the keener focus of the market place, for now. The U.S.
Congress is mostly backing President Obama on his notion to
use U.S. firepower to strike Syria. However, at the G-20
meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia, it appears Russian
President Putin is trying to steal the show by him and his
Asian allies squaring off against President Obama on his
intention to attack Syria. Putin, who is striving to be
relevant on the world stage, has hinted Russia could come to
the aid of Syria if the U.S. military did attack the Bashar
Assad regime. Come Monday morning the Syria tensions could
well be right back on the front burner of the market place,
including some new twists that come out of the G-20
meeting.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today,
awaiting the jobs data. Prices are still in a four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at Thursday’s high of 1,658.00 and then at 1,667.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the overnight
low of 1,648.70 and then at Wednesday’s low of 1,635.30.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. The
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and
have regained upside near-term momentum this week. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
Thursday’s high of 3,137.75 and then at the August high of
3,148.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 3,120.50 and then at 3,113.25. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Prices are
still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart,
but now just barely. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 14,965 and then
at 15,000. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 14,900 and then at 14,845. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on
tepid short covering, but did hit a fresh contract low
overnight. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 131
even and then at 131 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight contract low of 129 27/32 and then at 129
16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on
tepid short covering after hitting another fresh contract
low overnight. Bears still have the strong overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
122.28.0 and then at 123.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight contract low of 122.07.0 and then at 122.00.0
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early
today. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on
their side. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 83.000 and then at 83.250. Shorter-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.765 and then
at 82.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher early
today. Crude bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage, amid recent upbeat economic data coming out of
the world’s major countries, and amid the Syria tensions. In
October Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $108.92 and then at
$110.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $108.12 and then at $107.50. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight on mostly short covering
ahead of the U.S. jobs report. Soybean bulls are
maintaining their technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears
remain in firm technical command. While the extended
weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt call for very warm
and dry conditions in the region, it appears the late-
summer weather market has played out in the grain futures
markets. It appears yield damage to the crops has already
been mostly factored into present prices. For grain market
prices to gain more upside in the near term, some new
fundamental news will have to occur. Maybe that will come
from the demand side, with hints coming in this morning’s
USDA weekly export sales report. The grains could also
react to key "outside market" forces in the near term.

 

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