Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 9

September 9, 2013 01:48 AM
 

Monday, September 9--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

European stocks were weaker Monday on jitters regarding a
potential U.S. military strike against the Syrian regime.
The G-20 meeting in Russia ended over the weekend. The main
focus was President Obama’s efforts to line up support for
U.S. military action against the Syrian regime. His efforts
had mixed results at best. Obama will make a televised
speech on the matter Tuesday. The U.S. Congress this week
will also debate and likely vote on the issue. The market
place is still jittery regarding a potential U.S. military
strike against Syria, mainly due to the reaction of other
countries, such as Russia, China and Iran, should the U.S.
take action. China during the weekend reported strong
exports during August, at up 7.2% on an annualized basis.
Strong Chinese import levels for August were also reported,
at up 7.0% year on year. Consumer inflation in China rose
2.6% in August, year on year, which was in line with
expectations. China industrial production figures are due
out Tuesday. There was also strong GDP data coming out of
Japan Monday. Asian stocks were lifted on the upbeat
economic data coming out of the region. Traders and
investors are already looking ahead to next week’s meeting
of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Last Friday’s weaker than expected U.S. jobs report did not
really shed any fresh light on whether the Fed might start
to "taper" its monthly bond-buying program sooner or later.
Still, it appears a slight majority of the market place
believes the U.S. central bank at next week’s meeting will
announce it will begin to scale back its quantitative
easing. U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light
and includes the employment trends index and consumer
installment credit.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have
regained the slight overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of
1,663.80 and then at 1,667.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,650.00 and then at 1,639.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. The
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and
have regained upside near-term momentum. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the August
high of 3,148.00 and then at 3,160.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 3,130.50 and then at
3,120.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer steady early today. A four-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Friday’s high of 15,005 and then at 15,020. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 14,900 and
then at 14,845. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on
short covering in a bear market Prices Friday hit a contract
low. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 131 1/32 and then at Friday’s high of 131 15/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 130 10/32 and
then at 130 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on
short covering after hitting a contract low Friday. Bears
still have the strong overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 123.00.0 and then at
the overnight high of 123.11.5. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 122.28.0 and then at 122.16.0
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early
today. Bulls and bears are on an overall level near-term
technical playing field. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
82.550 and then at 82.795. Shorter-term support is seen at
last week’s low of 82.300 and then at 82.000. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are weaker early today, on a
corrective pullback from strong gains posted on Friday.
Crude bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage amid the Syria tensions. In October Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
Friday’s high of $110.70 and then at $111.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $109.00 and then at
$108.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight, with corn and wheat weaker
and soybeans firmer. Soybean bulls are maintaining their
technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears remain in firm
technical command. While the weather forecasts for the U.S.
Corn Belt still call for very warm and dry conditions in
the region in the next few days, it appears the late-summer
weather market has played out in the grain futures markets—
at least for now. It appears yield damage to the crops has
already been mostly factored into present prices. For grain
market prices to gain more upside in the near term, some
new fundamental news will have to occur.
 

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