Jump Early in 2010 for Marketing Opportunities

December 2, 2009 06:00 PM

Jeanne Bernick, Top Producer Editor
Get ready to jump on marketing opportunities in early January, according to analysts at the Farm Journal Media Marketing Rally in Chicago. At this historic event, 16 leading market analysts joined together on one stage to discuss pricing strategies and share views for 2010 selling opportunities.
ProFarmer's Chip Flory, who moderated the event, asked the analysts when they expect to see the best marketing opportunity for 2010 corn and soybeans crops. The majority nodded to within the next 60 days.
Gregg Hunt, MF Global: "By January 15. We will see the final crop and we'll have an extremely good handle on the South American situation by then.”
Dan Basse, AgResource Company: "When the gold market tops out. I have no idea when that is, but that's the paradox everyone in this room has to deal with. I have hedge funds that will keep pushing money into grains until gold tops out. We could be at $12 beans even though all of these fundamentals are bearish.”
Mark Gold, Top Third Marketing: "One of my good friends is a weather man out of Iowa who has been touting a drought for years. This is the first year that we haven't heard anything about a drought. So the best opportunity will be in August. But the reality is, I have no idea.”
Brian Basting, Advance Marketing: "In the next 60 days. Earlier this year will be the possibility. First of year you have your final stocks reports, final production reports, a pretty good idea of South American production. As producers, I would say you have to be on your toes.”
Gavin Maguire, EHedger: "By the end of January. We will have seen early allocations behind us in terms of money coming in. We will see beginning of more earnest export season from S. America, especially in soybeans. And the soybeans were a dominant market on the way up and they will be on the way down. The prospect of more acres coming into play this spring will be on the minds of producers and traders. We could easily see both corn and beans gain more acres this year, and that concerns us.”
Bill Biedermann, Allendale: "I think the whole market is going to start to unfold in January. So producers need to do their marketing over the next few weeks. USDA reports, South American production, China quits buying, funds start to lift – there could be a lot of unfolding in January.”
Sue Martin, Ag & Investment Services: "I tend to put it down to dates. I have January 13, 15 and 16 as a very key time to be selling grain. It ushers in the February break we traditionally get, but then we will come back with an acreage fight and that lifts us back up in March. The key will be if we can push on into April. But by middle of May, it will be over with.”
Michael Florez, Florez Trading: "The market typically tops in late spring and I would go with that scenario.”
Bob Utterback, Utterback Marketing Services: "First of January. It's going to come early, everyone is going to be ready for drought talk and be positioned long for that. But you have to be sold into Jan. And by April 15 you better have a floor.”
Mike Hogan, Stewart-Peterson: "The first couple of months of the new year will be your best top. But I'm a big fan of tax day. If the drought comes true, we should get corn in on time and everyone will be wondering what kind of crop we can grow.”
Kevin McNew, Cash Grain Bids: "On the cash market, we ought to see basis levels firm up as we finish harvest. So if you are a cash only marketer, look for basis to rally in the next few weeks.”
Alan Brugler, Brugler Marketing & Management: "This whole question is an exercise in futility. The money flow is a dominant factor. The timing and date approaches don't work well. You have to look for more in risk management than a specific date.”
Richard Brock, Brock Associates: "The vomitoxin variable is important in Eastern Corn Belt. There will be an acreage battle. Those acres that had high levels of vomitoxin will have to go into beans because of the carryover issue. Also have acreage issues where fall field work didn't get done. So they might go to beans. As far as timing goes, for soybeans it will be in January. I think you've already seen the top in corn.”
Jim Bower, Bower Trading: "Sell today, and be prepared for a weather event.”
Jerry Gulke, The Gulke Group: "I have some concerns. Something is going on out there. These are high prices, these are good sales. Wheat should not have gone up recently. We have supporting markets for the next 12-18 months and I have to ask why that is happening. I want to be cautious about selling my farm to someone who is going to be buying 60,000 contracts. Something is going on that we saw in 2004, and we saw it in 1993, when we said we'd never get this chance again. Until the fundamentals come forth to tell me why the technicals are acting this way, I'm going to be cautious.”

For More Information

You can email Jeanne Bernick at jbernick@farmjournal.com.

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