Just Waiting On USDA Data

March 28, 2012 04:00 AM

What Traders are Talking About:

* Waiting on USDA. The bulk of Tuesday's price action was corrective in nature and that's likely to continue to today as traders even positions ahead of Friday morning's Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports from USDA. Corn is the market in which traders are most wary of a bearish surprise from USDA. On the other hand, traders are least concerned about bearish data for soybeans. Wheat fall somewhere in the middle.

The long and short of it: Pre-report positioning is likely to consume traders' attention today and Thursday. There seems to be very little interest in actively adding new positions ahead of USDA's reports.

* Bernanke: Not so fast on economic recovery. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told ABC News the U.S. economy isn't on a certain path to a full recovery and warned against complacency, although he sees low odds of a double-dip recession. Bernanke said housing is "a big concern" as the U.S. is "not really yet in a full-fledged housing recovery" He also said long-term unemployment remains a lingering problem and the 8.3% unemployment rate is still too high. As for inflation, Bernanke said, "We'll see a little bit higher inflation the next few months because of the higher gas prices"... which "will be a bit of a hit on growth" ... but "will not endanger economic recovery."

The long and short of it: After Bernanke left open the possibility of further quantitative easing earlier this week, investors are closely dissecting every world out of his mouth. There is a belief the Fed will be there to "save" the economy if needed, which is comforting for investors, but Bernanke's comments are reason to exhibit some caution.


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