Keep Your Eye on the Stocks

September 27, 2012 07:43 AM
Keep Your Eye on the Stocks

Market experts weigh in on what surprises and market moves could follow tomorrow’s USDA reports.

USDA will release its quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports at 7:30 a.m. CDT Friday.

Allendale’s Rich Nelson says throughout the year, USDA and the entire grain trade is always estimating "end of the marketing year" ending stock numbers. "The end of the old crop year was just on Aug. 31. Friday’s quarterly stocks report is the report to finally solve this old crop stocks question."

Grain Hedge’s Brock Schimbeno provides the following estimates for tomorrow’s reports.


Quarterly Grain Stocks projections

  • Corn: 1.11 billion bu.
  • Soybeans: 131 million bu.
  • Wheat: 2.28 billion bu.


"The corn number is a little lower than USDA was projecting in the September WASDE report, soybeans are just about on par with what USDA had. Any deviations from these numbers could cause big market swings," he says.

Mike Howlett, Top Third Ag Marketing, says all eyes will be on the corn and soybean numbers tomorrow. "They have been on such a sharp decline. Yields are extremely variable across the country. We could see some fireworks tomorrow morning. USDA is good a throwing curveballs."

Greg Wagner, president of GWX – Ag Advisors, says these two reports will provide partial closure on the supply side for the U.S. grain markets.

Additionally, in less than two weeks, the markets will have two other big reports to digest. USDA’s October Crop Production and WASDE reports are queued up for delivery on Thursday Oct. 11.

"Disheartened bulls and emboldened bears are likely to find their passions tempered over the course of the next two weeks," Wagner says.


Tune into tomorrow morning for coverage and analysis of the reports, beginning at 7:30 CDT.

Learn more from the experts in this story:

The Allendale Wake-Up Call featuring Rich Nelson

Even Keel Ag Perspective by Greg Wagner

Grain Hedge featuring Brock Schimbeno

AgWeb Radio featuring Mike Howlett


Back to news




Spell Check

9/27/2012 01:31 PM

  Who in their right mind would waste the time it takes to hear that report? Seriously!!!! The use is going to be down, the exports are going to be down, the yields and planted acres will be up and the carryover coming in will be raised even more. Another magic bin found by our government. And the saddest part of all of this is that the market analysts cannot find or dare not speak the truth. Of course, that is in line with the national media which refuses to research and print actual news. And those Presidential polls, now there is a hoot. I can remember when Jesse Ventura ran for Governor of Minnesota and the polls showed him to have 10% of the vote. Miraculously, he still won the election!!!! I'm guessing that these statisticions now work for the Ag Dept. of the US of A!!! LOL Anyone that doesn't listen to the news is uninformed. Those that do listen are misinformed. Buckle up those seat belts, this could be a fun ride!!!!


Corn College TV Education Series


Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!


Market Data provided by
Brought to you by Beyer