Keep Your La Nina Bets Small

October 14, 2010 05:23 AM

There’s a lot of market chatter about La Niña causing production problems in South America. In fact, this cool-ocean-water event already has delayed early-season soybean planting in parts of Brazil, which may mean fewer beans available to the export market in January than usual.

However, this week Allen Motew of QT Weather reported that seasonal rains in some parts of Brazil had improved crops there. “Vegetation health condition changes on a weekly basis show significant and widespread improvement, but crop health in most of Brazil still lags considerably from this time last year,” he says. “Surprisingly, Argentina’s vegetation is much improved from last year.”
Conditions should continue to improve, says Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc. “If La Niña behaves as we anticipate there will be a period of improved rainfall for much of central and northern Brazil from late October through November. The only drier-biased conditions will likely be in Argentina, Uruguay, far southern Brazil, including Rio Grande do Sul, and a part of Paraguay, and they will not be serious and may not drag production sharply lower, but could pull it downward.”
December–January is the key time if La Niña is going to rough up South American crops. If the anomaly extends into March, as these meteorologists expect, planting could be delayed in the U.S.
Hear more about expected U.S. spring planting conditions from QT Weather meteorologist Allen Motew at Top Producer Seminar, January 26-28, 2011. Visit to register.


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