Late-Season Rains Pose More Threat Than Benefit

September 5, 2012 01:21 AM

What Traders are Talking About:

* Rains slow corn harvest more than help beans. Weekly crop condition/progress data from USDA Tuesday signaled remnant rains from Hurricane Isaac did more to slow corn harvest than to benefit the soybean crop. As of Sunday, USDA says 10% of the corn crop was harvested, which was up from 6% the previous week, but below expectations. Of course, combines were back in fields quickly following the rains as the parched soils quickly soaked up the moisture. Meanwhile, the rains had limited impact on soybean conditions. USDA reports 30% of the crop was rated "good" to "excellent" (unchanged) and 37% "poor" to "very poor" (38% the previous week).

The long and short of it: With corn harvest advancing and soybeans turning yellow and dropping leaves, rains now are more of a detriment than benefit.

* Corn, bean basis softening. Seasonal pressure is being felt on the cash market as corn harvest is progressing at a record pace and soybean harvest is just around the corner. Corn and soybean basis is weakening and more pressure on the cash market is likely. Even though crops were dramatically trimmed by drought, a heavy flow of new-crop supplies onto the market is likely through fall as the price structure and the questionable condition of crops, especially corn, don't favor storing them on-farm.

The long and short of it: While fundamentals are highly bullish, there's still risk of seasonal price pressure as harvest unfolds.

* Allendale releases crop estimates. Following its annual survey of producers, research and brokerage firm Allendale pegs the U.S. corn crop at 10.326 billion bu. and the national average yield at 118.2 bu. per acre. The firm sees the soybean crop at 2.602 billion bu. and the national average yield at 34.9 bu. per acre. Allendale used USDA's harvested acreage numbers from the August Crop Production Report.

The long and short of it: USDA will update its crop estimates Sept. 12 and is expected to lower both corn and soybean production estimates from the initial pegs in August.


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Spell Check

9/5/2012 02:15 PM

  We received 4 inches of rain since Friday 8-31.Our beans are filling the pods and won't start leaf drop for a couple of weeks. We haven't started shelling corn yet so no delays in our area. This rain will add several bushels of beans/ac. Don Easley. Marion county ,Ohio.


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