Market Analysts Provide Yield Estimates

July 10, 2012 08:50 AM
Market Analysts Provide Yield Estimates

Find out where several market estimates expect the average national corn yield estimate to come in at.

According to around 6,000 votes, readers of are expecting low corn yields this fall.

Here is the vote breakdown:

Corn Yield Poll Results


Currently, USDA is estimating a national corn yield average of 166 bu./acre. Many market experts believe that number is high, way too high.

Alan Brugler, president of Brugler Marketing, says his current estimate is 149 bu./acre. But, he doesn’t think USDA will go below 154-155 bu./acre on Wednesday.

"Current prices are high enough to ration demand with a 13.2 billion bushel crop, as ending stocks would still be close to 1 billion bushels. However, that doesn't mean they won't go higher out of an abundance of caution!"

Justin Kelly, EHedger president, is predicting a national yield of 153 bu./acre. "We believe the market is already pricing in a 145-150 type yield, so expect corn to be reaching the top end of its range."

Ted Seifried, senior market strategist for the Zaner Group, says their current estimate is 151.5 bu./acre, but believes it could drop as low as 144 bu./acre if drought conditions continue.

"Using a 151.5 bu./acre national yield we see prices between $7.75 on the high end to $5.25 on the low end. The reduction in yield obviously tightens the balance sheet however we also expect a fair amount of demand destruction above $7. A strong dollar and crude oil prices under $100 a barrel could help corn price ration demand specifically in the export and ethanol sectors."

Greg Wagner, president of GWX Ag Advisors, is pegging the final national corn yield average at 149.7 bu./acre. "Given current crop condition ratings, the relative percent of crop that has pollinated under worst possible conditions, and the expanding soil moisture deficit in principal corn producing states it is clear that the U.S. is rapidly approaching a catastrophic crop failure."

Wagner says even through corn prices have rapidly increased, he doesn’t believe the market has fully incorporated the full extent of the drought’s impact on corn yields. "All indications are that we are tracking towards a historic crop failure."

If the smaller crop is realized and prices shoot upward, Wagner says rationing will begin in ethanol, exports and poultry feeding. "Corn prices will be on a mission, probing higher with the function of destroying demand, and then retreating to see to what extent that mission has been accomplished. Wildcards remain both on the table and up Mother Nature's sleeve."

Will USDA lower their corn yield estimate? Stay tuned to tomorrow morning to see full coverage and analysis of USDA’s July Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.


More Pre-report Analysis


AgWeb Radio: Midday Commentary 7-10-12
Tom Grisafi of Indiana Grain Company says traders are using psychology and squaring up before the report tomorrow. Markets will be open tomorrow during the report, pits will open early.

What to Look For in the July 11 Reports
Richard Brock of Brock Associates says the big surprise in tomorrow's USDA reports won't be in the yield estimates, but rather the usage numbers.


For More Information
See current market prices with AgWeb's Market Center.

Read more from these experts:

Market Watch by Alan Brugler

EHedger Report by Justin Kelly

The Ted Spread by Ted Seifried

Even Keel Ag Perspectives by Greg Wagner


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