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Market Expects Bearish Corn Stocks Report

11:44AM Sep 29, 2010

The market expects a larger corn stocks report tomorrow than would normally be expected —perhaps 1.407 billion bushels, according to a Dow Jones Newswire survey.

“The theory is that 50 to 75 million bushels or more of old-crop corn was sitting on barges waiting to be blended with 2010 corn,” says Jerry Gulke of the Gulke Group. If those bushels are in transit, they won’t be counted. “On the other hand, 6% of the new crop was harvested and as much as 200 million bushels of 2010 corn may be counted as stocks. So netted out, we could see 150 million bushels—equal to a million acres—show up as stocks,” he says.

“That seems very bearish for corn unless you understand that the January stocks report may well be less than expected as these influences work through,” he says. “The surprise would be if we have less stocks on hand. So tomorrow could be a confusing day. It will be important how the market closes.”

Soybean stocks will be bearish unless they come in under 161 million, Gulke says. Dow Jones’ survey indicates traders expect an even lower 151 million; wheat, 2.44 billion.

Listen to Gulke's Audio Analysis